Traders funneled roughly $39.6 million into World Cup winner contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi within 24 hours as France prepared to face Spain in Tuesday's semifinal. Key Points: Roughly $3
Traders funneled roughly $39.6 million into World Cup winner contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi within 24 hours as France prepared to face Spain in Tuesday's semifinal.
Key Points:
- Roughly $39.6 million moved through the tournament winner market in a single day, most of it on Polymarket venues.
- France leads the field at 38.6%, with Spain near 21% before the Jul. 14 semifinal in Dallas.
- Lifetime volume on the winner contract has passed $5.2 billion across both platforms.
Aggregated odds trackers showed about $39.6 million changing hands on the winner market in the 24 hours through late Saturday, with Polymarket's two venues handling more than 96% of the flow. Kalshi accounted for just under 4% of the day's turnover on that single contract.
France beat Morocco 2-0 on Thursday to become the first semifinalist, and its contracts settled near 40.1% on Kalshi and 38.6% on Polymarket after the final whistle. Spain answered on Friday, edging Belgium 2-1 through a late goal from substitute Mikel Merino and climbing to roughly 21%. The two sides meet in Dallas on Jul. 14.
Lifetime turnover on the winner contract has reached more than $5.2 billion, split between $4.1 billion on Polymarket and $1.1 billion on Kalshi as of Jul. 9. Argentina drew about $12.9 million in daily flow, the most of any nation, while England pulled in $8.8 million after gaining 4.3 points to 19.4%.
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The near-identical pricing on both platforms suggests traders broadly agree on how the tournament ends. Kalshi, which partnered with FIFA as the event's official prediction market, settles most match contracts at the end of regulation time. Asaf Meir, chief executive of market-integrity firm Solidus Labs, reportedly described the tournament as a decisive stress test of whether prediction markets can keep a level playing field.
Beyond the winner market, the Golden Boot contract has become the most active prop, with about $52.5 million traded on Polymarket and $15.5 million on Kalshi. Kylian Mbappé is priced between 43% and 46% to finish top scorer, ahead of Lionel Messi, with both men on eight goals.
The frenzy caps weeks of escalating World Cup betting drama. June reportedly produced record monthly volumes of more than $30 billion on Kalshi and $10.8 billion on Polymarket, while individual accounts swung wildly through the group stage.
A trader known as coldsway lost $11.6 million in 10 days chasing favorites, and another, fishalive, turned roughly $400,000 into nearly $9 million when Cape Verde held Spain to a scoreless draw.
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