One day out from the Fed's rate decision, gold is pressing right on a key support zone. PAXG is down about 1% today, trading near $4,294, inside a descending channel that's been forming since
One day out from the Fed's rate decision, gold is pressing right on a key support zone. PAXG is down about 1% today, trading near $4,294, inside a descending channel that's been forming since early September.
Liquidations remain light, with longs still taking the bulk of the pain.
This PAX Gold price prediction checks where PAXG stands going into tomorrow's decision and the levels that matter most either way.
Market data was checked on September 15, 2026, based on the chart timestamped 12:21 (IST).
Metric
Value
Price
$4,294.71
Market Cap
$1.85B (-1.03%)
24h Volume
$177.2M (+94.73%)
Vol/Mkt Cap (24h)
9.54%
FDV
$1.85B
Liq/Mkt Cap
1.12%
Total Supply
432.9K $PAXG
Max Supply
Unlimited
Circulating Supply
432.9K $PAXG
Holders
87.31K
Source: Data from CoinMarketCap as of September 15, 2026, at 12:21 IST. Figures may vary slightly across other tracking websites.
Window
Total Liquidated
Longs
Shorts
12h
$10.02K
$6.75K
$3.27K
24h
$98.85K
$84.11K
$14.74K
Liquidations remain light in dollar terms, but longs have taken the clear majority in both windows, consistent with the pullback toward support (data via Coinglass).
The Fed's rate decision lands tomorrow, September 16, at 2:00 PM Eastern Time, alongside updated economic projections.
The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% since December 2025, but markets have shifted toward pricing a quarter-point hike as more likely than not after Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech and a solid August jobs report.
Softer July employment and retail-sales data had earlier supported the case for another hold, and inflation staying above the Fed's 2% target keeps both outcomes in play.
Whichever way it goes, it's likely to move gold-linked assets like PAXG quickly.
Pair: PAX Gold/USD · Market: Spot (Crypto, gold-backed token) · Timeframe: 1D · Timestamp: September 15, 2026, 03:01 UTC-3
PAXG trades at $4,294.71, sitting inside a descending channel that's formed since early September.
Price is now pressing on the chart's support zone near $4,201.79, with the EMA cluster sitting just overhead as resistance.
Note: PAXG current price may see some minor fluctuation
Level Type
Price
Resistance 5
$5,030.59
Resistance 4
$4,687.09
Resistance 3
$4,508.58
Resistance 2
$4,397.85
Resistance 1 (nearest)
$4,314.63
Immediate Price Reference
$4,294.71
First Confirmed Support
$4,201.79
Bull case: A dovish outcome tomorrow, combined with a bounce from the $4,201.79 support zone, could send PAXG back toward the EMA cluster and then $4,397.85, with $4,508.58 and $4,687.09 further out if the move extends.
Bear case: A hawkish surprise or confirmed hike could push PAXG through $4,201.79, opening a deeper leg lower.
The descending channel and the long-skewed liquidations both suggest the path of least resistance is still down heading into the decision.
Scenario
Trigger
Likely Outcome
Invalidation Point
Post-Fed relief rally
Close above $4,382.05
Push toward $4,508.58
Rejection back below $4,359.47
Support hold
Bounce from $4,201.79
Range continues into the decision
Close below $4,201.79
Support breakdown
Close below $4,201.79
Extend the channel decline
Reclaim of $4,201.79
$5,030.59 is the highest resistance marked on the chart. Getting there would require $PAXG to first clear $4,397.85, then $4,508.58 and $4,687.09 in turn, a move that would likely need a sustained dovish shift from the Fed rather than just tomorrow's single decision.
According to CoinGabbar analysts, PAXG is sitting right on support with the Fed decision just a day away, making this one of the more binary setups on the chart right now.
The $4,201.79 to $4,382.05 zone will likely define the next move once the verdict lands.
Disclaimer
This piece is for informational purposes only and isn't financial advice. The levels and scenarios above are based on technical chart analysis and publicly available data at the time of writing, and crypto markets can move sharply within hours, so past patterns don't guarantee future outcomes. It's worth doing independent research and considering your own risk tolerance before acting on any of the levels discussed here.
