Key Takeaways RSI shows that selling lost momentum. The death cross reflects trend weakness. Stablecoin supply rose as trading cooled. $134 is the next recovery test. The rebound follows Sola
The rebound follows Solana’s August rally, when SOL briefly reached $110, its high for the month. The weekly chart now shifts attention to $105, the first resistance zone the recovery must clear.
The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement sits at $105, close to the descending trendline and the 50-week simple moving average. Together, those levels form the first major resistance zone for SOL’s recovery.
A one-day move above that area would not change the weekly structure. SOL needs to close above $105 and hold the level after a retest before the market can treat it as support. Until then, the recovery remains a challenge to the downtrend.
Solana’s weekly levels
LevelWhy it matters$10523.6% Fibonacci retracement and the first weekly resistance zone.$13438.2% Fibonacci retracement and the next major upside barrier.Mid-$140sArea of the 100-week moving average, another major resistance level.$15650% retracement of the decline from the 2025 high to the June low.SOL made a lower price low during the decline into June, while its weekly RSI made a higher low. That mismatch is known as a bullish divergence: price continued to fall, but the momentum behind the sell-off weakened. It suggests that sellers were losing control into the June bottom.
That becomes more meaningful only if price follows through. A sustained weekly move above $105 would show that buyers are responding to the improvement in momentum; another rejection there would leave the divergence in place without confirming a reversal.
Solana (SOL/USDT) weekly price chart. The 50-week moving average has fallen below the 200-week average, creating the death-cross condition. Traders watch it because it shows the shorter-term trend has weakened below the longer-term trend, even though the crossover itself is a lagging indicator rather than a forecast for the next weekly candle.
The 50-week and 200-week averages are converging around $105, making that zone more important. The 100-week average sits in the mid-$140s, adding another barrier if SOL recovers beyond the first retracement.
DeFiLlama puts Solana’s stablecoin market cap at about $16.42 billion as of writing, up 5.05% over seven days. The figure covers stablecoins circulating across the network, including balances in wallets and DeFi applications.
That matters because those stablecoins can be used to buy SOL on Solana-based exchanges or posted as collateral on onchain perpetual platforms. A larger stablecoin balance expands the pool of dollar-denominated capital available on the network, but it does not show how much is actively sitting in SOL trading pools, order books or derivatives margin.
So far, trading activity has not confirmed a broad expansion in demand. Solana’s seven-day DEX volume was down 11.02%, while perpetual-futures volume fell 5.78%. A recovery above $105 would carry more weight if turnover starts rising alongside the stablecoin balance, showing that more of that capital is entering SOL markets rather than remaining in wallets, lending protocols or payment balances.
Recent network use remains relevant – Solana fees reached record levels earlier this month, but fee growth alone does not determine the weekly chart trend.
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Chainlink Price About to Cool Down? Warning Signs Start FlashingGrowing stablecoin liquidity becomes more relevant when applications give users a reason to move it. On September 3, the Solana Foundation introduced Payment Channels, which allow users or software agents to authorize a spending limit once, exchange signed payment updates offchain and settle the final balance onchain.
The Foundation said a proxy test involving 100,000 wallets issued more than one million payment updates per second. The figure does not describe Solana’s base-layer throughput: the payment updates are aggregated, and only final settlements reach the chain.
The price connection is indirect, but sustained adoption could matter for SOL’s economics. Each final settlement on Solana requires transaction fees paid in SOL, and half of every base fee is burned. If Payment Channels lead to more channel openings, settlements and other onchain activity, they could increase SOL-denominated fee demand while reducing circulating supply through the burn mechanism. That could potentially support the token only if usage becomes large and persistent; the test itself is not evidence of new SOL buying.
For the recovery to gain technical credibility, SOL needs a weekly close above $105, followed by a move through $134. That would show that buyers have cleared the first Fibonacci barrier and begun to recover the damaged moving-average structure.
A rejection below $105 would keep SOL under the falling trendline and preserve the broader weekly downtrend. The RSI divergence would still show that sellers lost momentum into June, but buyers would need more evidence before the market could call the move a durable reversal.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
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