Stock Market Today: S&P 500 and Dow Jones Slip as Oil, Rates and September Risk Pressure Wall Street

U.S. stocks opened lower Monday as a renewed surge in oil prices and rising Treasury yields revived inflation concerns, leaving the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average under pressure on the final trading day of August.

The Dow fell 97.4 points, or 0.18%, at the opening bell to 53,462.6. The S&P 500 declined 0.18% to 7,697.52, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.17% to 26,358.56. The weakness followed renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities that sent Brent crude above $90 a barrel and increased concern that higher energy costs could complicate the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight. 

Higher Oil and Treasury Yields Tighten the Market Backdrop

Oil was the clearest macro driver early Monday. Brent rose more than 2% above $90 a barrel, while U.S. crude climbed toward $86.40 after U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz. 

The bond market added another headwind. The 10-year Treasury yield moved near 4.75% as investors weighed higher energy prices alongside a more hawkish interest-rate outlook. Rising yields can pressure equities by increasing financing costs and reducing the present value investors assign to future corporate earnings. 

That combination reinforces a concern highlighted by Mark Minervini in seasonal work shared on X: the S&P 500 is entering a historically difficult part of the calendar just as oil and interest rates appear capable of moving higher together.

The cycle composite Minervini shared combines the one-year seasonal pattern, four-year presidential cycle and 10-year decennial cycle. Its historical path weakens from around mid-August into early October before improving toward year-end.

S&P 500 2026 Cycle Composite and Seasonal Risk. Source: Mark Minervini (@markminervini) on X

The important point is not that the historical pattern guarantees a September correction. Minervini explicitly treats cycles as context rather than a standalone trading signal. But the current convergence of weaker seasonality, firmer oil and higher rates makes the historical tendency more relevant because all three can work against risk appetite at the same time.

Dow Jones Tests Support Below 53,800 Resistance

The Dow Jones technical picture also reflects the market’s hesitation.

A four-hour chart shared by Rishika shows the index around 53,440, below near-term resistance at 53,780 and a higher barrier at 53,940. Immediate support sits near 53,160, followed by 53,000.

Dow Jones 4-Hour Support and Resistance. Source: Rishika (@fxrishika) on X

The chart shows the Dow recovering from an August decline but repeatedly struggling to extend gains through the 53,780 area. Momentum has also softened, with the displayed 14-period RSI near 46, below the neutral 50 level.

That leaves the short-term bias cautious despite a still-constructive broader trend. A sustained move above 53,780 would improve the near-term setup and put 53,940 to 54,100 back in focus. A break below 53,160, however, would increase the risk of a retest of 53,000 and the rising longer-term moving-average area beneath it.

September Seasonality Meets a Crucial Jobs Week

The market enters September after a strong August. Before Monday’s session, the Dow had gained about 2.1% for the month, the S&P 500 about 3% and the Nasdaq roughly 4.1%. 

Investors now face a heavy economic calendar culminating in Friday’s August employment report. Other releases this week include JOLTS job openings, manufacturing data, ADP employment figures, weekly jobless claims and services-sector readings. 

For the S&P 500 and Dow Jones, the near-term test is whether higher oil prices and Treasury yields remain contained. If both continue rising, September’s historically weaker seasonal backdrop could carry more weight. If yields retreat and leading stocks maintain support, however, price action could again override the seasonal warning.