XRP is trading around $1.05 as of August 9, hovering just above the psychologically critical $1.00 level that has acted as both support and resistance for nearly two months. After a brief ral
XRP is trading around $1.05 as of August 9, hovering just above the psychologically critical $1.00 level that has acted as both support and resistance for nearly two months. After a brief rally in late July that pushed the token above $1.20, XRP has given back those gains and now sits dangerously close to the key psychological level.
But the real story is what traders on Polymarket are signaling. The prediction market now assigns a 65% to 68% chance that XRP will fall below $1.00 by the end of August. That is a massive jump from just a few days ago. On August 1, the odds stood at roughly 50%. By August 3, they had dipped below 40% before reversing heavily.
Over the following days, conviction climbed in a stair-step fashion, peaking near 82-85% before settling into the current 65-68% range.
The odds have effectively doubled in less than a week. The odds of the XRP price reaching $1.20 by month-end are now just 17% , while the chance of a rally to $1.40 is a mere 2%.
The biggest single driver has been the collapse in hopes that the CLARITY Act (the crypto market‑structure bill XRP holders have been counting on) will pass this year. The Senate left town for its August recess without taking up the bill, pushing the vote to at least September. The bill currently holds 51 confirmed Senate votes and needs 60 to advance. That gap has not closed.
BREAKING: XRP projected to crash below $1.00 by the end of the month.65% chance.https://t.co/z5yfnlniyq
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) August 8, 2026
Polymarket now gives the CLARITY Act only a 14% chance of becoming law in 2026, down from 82% in February. Majority Leader John Thune never filed the cloture motion needed for a vote, so the bill now waits until the Senate returns on September 14.
The delay is extending the regulatory uncertainty that has weighed on XRP for years. Democrats are blocking the bill over ethics provisions tied to Trump’s $1.4 billion in crypto earnings in 2025—provisions they argue do not change anything in practice.
Despite the bearish sentiment, one analyst, Floppy, offered a longer‑term perspective:
“Whether XRP holds here or we get one final brutal flush below $1… I believe this bear market is almost over. And when the reversal finally comes, I don’t expect it to be slow. Crypto spends months bleeding. Months going sideways. Months making everyone lose hope. Then suddenly… the switch flips.”
Is XRP about to drop BELOW $1?
— Floppy (@FloppyX) August 8, 2026It’s possible.But I think people are focusing on the wrong question.Whether XRP holds here or we get one final brutal flush below $1…I believe this bear market is almost over.And when the reversal finally comes, I don’t expect it to be… pic.twitter.com/eRdJSxirrq
Floppy’s argument echoes a pattern XRP has shown before: extended periods of pain followed by violent reversals. He acknowledged that a capitulation below $1 is possible, but he is positioning for what comes after the bear market, not the flush itself.
Other analysts have pointed to the $0.87–$0.90 range as a potential final low before a meaningful recovery begins. Floppy’s weekly chart projection shows one final period of weakness before breaking above the descending resistance.
Read also: We Asked 3 AI Models to Predict XRP’s Price by 2028 – Here’s Where They Really Disagree
The short‑term direction is clear: the market is pricing in a significant probability of a drop below $1.00. The CLARITY Act delay is the primary catalyst, and with the Senate not returning until September 14, no immediate resolution is in sight.
Downside targets: If $1.00 breaks, the next support sits at $0.94 , followed by $0.87 – the level several analysts have flagged as the bear market low. A drop to $0.87 would represent roughly a 17% decline from current levels.
Upside catalysts: A surprise announcement on the CLARITY Act or a broader crypto market rally could reverse the trend. But with Polymarket odds at 65-68% for a breakdown, the path of least resistance is lower until a catalyst emerges.
My take: The Polymarket odds are a reflection of real sentiment, not just noise. The Senate delay is real. The regulatory uncertainty is real. And XRP is trading just pennies above the level where a massive amount of supply was accumulated. If $1.00 breaks, the move lower could be fast.
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The post XRP Price Projected to Crash Below $1.00 by the End of the Month appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
