Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into a massive options expiry already on the back foot. The event could add pressure to a market battered by fading institutional demand and macro headwinds. Roughly
Bitcoin (BTC) is heading into a massive options expiry already on the back foot.
The event could add pressure to a market battered by fading institutional demand and macro headwinds.
Roughly $10 billion in notional value of Bitcoin options expires on Deribit, the largest crypto options venue, at 4 p.m. on Friday, June 26, in Singapore.
With most of those contracts positioned as bullish bets and Bitcoin sliding, traders may shift toward more defensive or outright bearish stances into the close.
The expiring contracts account for about 37% of open interest, the total number of active positions on Deribit.
According to Deribit's Jean-David Pequignot, the put-to-call ratio sits at 0.83, meaning bets on Bitcoin rising still outnumber bets on it falling, Bloomberg reported. But that long-call book has been marked against a spot price that keeps slipping.
Most call open interest is now out of the money, leaving those contracts with no intrinsic value at current levels, while puts cluster around $60,000 to $65,000 and $70,000 to $75,000, positioning that favors the bears.
Tesseract Group's Adam Haeems cautioned that expiry mechanics clear positioning rather than set direction. Still, a call-skewed market falling into thin quarter-end and summer liquidity raises the odds of an outsized move that later mean-reverts as dealer hedging unwinds.
He sees the bigger test arriving in the first full week of July, once the quarterly book clears and leverage drops.
The pressure extends well beyond derivatives. Bitcoin dipped below $60,000, and as of press time was trading at $59,283 after dropping 2.6% over the past 24 hours.
It remains down more than 50% from its record and sits well below its 200-week moving average, a level that can signal a prolonged bear market. As per Barchart, Bitcoin's 200-day moving average is $84,443.95 at the time of writing.
U.S.-listed Bitcoin funds have bled about $2.92 billion in net outflows this month.
Related: Analysts issue stark Bitcoin warning after largest 2026 options expiry
