Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating and $36 price target on TeraWulf (Nasdaq: WULF) after the Bitcoin miner signed a 20-year, roughly $19 billion lease with AI developer Anthropic and
Bernstein reaffirmed its Outperform rating and $36 price target on TeraWulf (Nasdaq: WULF) after the Bitcoin miner signed a 20-year, roughly $19 billion lease with AI developer Anthropic and sold its majority stake in the Abernathy joint venture.
TeraWulf shares were down 10.47% intraday, near $19.88.
TeraWulf is a Nasdaq-listed developer and operator of digital infrastructure, running data centers powered largely by low-carbon energy in New York, Kentucky and Maryland. It started as a Bitcoin miner and has since diversified into AI and high-performance computing, leasing capacity to customers such as Anthropic while keeping its mining operations.
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The lease covers 401 megawatts of IT load at TeraWulf's Justified data campus in Hawesville, Kentucky, and delivers stronger economics than Bernstein had expected, an average annual yield of $2.4 million per IT megawatt, versus the firm's earlier $1.9 million assumption. The agreement, signed Monday, is expected to generate about $19 billion in revenue over its term.
It is TeraWulf's third AI deal, after agreements with Core42 and Google-backstopped Fluidstack, and Bernstein said its 20-year length is the longest signed by an emerging AI infrastructure player among diversifying Bitcoin miners, most of which are still locking in 10- to 15-year base contracts. The contract includes two five-year renewal options that could extend it another decade, with initial capacity expected online in the second half of 2027 and full delivery by early 2028.
TeraWulf's AI order book now totals about $27 billion in contracted revenue across roughly 839 megawatts of IT load.
Alongside the lease, TeraWulf agreed to sell its 50.1% stake in the Abernathy joint venture for $530 million, about an 18% return on its original $450 million equity investment, according to Bernstein. The venture, formed in October 2025 with Fluidstack to develop a 168-megawatt campus in Abernathy, Texas, will now pass fully to a Fluidstack-led investor group.
Payment arrives in three installments: $250 million within 14 days of signing, $150 million by the end of 2026, and about $130 million by April 30, 2027. TeraWulf plans to redeploy the proceeds into fully owned AI infrastructure, which Bernstein read as a shift toward direct customer leases and full operational control.
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The improved Anthropic yield largely offsets the lost Abernathy income, leaving Bernstein's steady-state estimates little changed. The firm raised its CY30 adjusted EBITDA estimate by about $43 million.
Bernstein projects net AI revenue growing from $209 million in CY26 to $1.7 billion by CY30, a 70% compound annual growth rate, with HPC EBITDA reaching $1.5 billion over the same period. It values TeraWulf at 21 times one-year forward EV/EBITDA, arriving at its $36 target after adjusting for $6.6 billion in net debt. The firm flagged customer concentration as a key risk that TeraWulf will need to manage as it scales.
