Bitcoin cannot get past $63,000. That is not a round-number observation, it is one of the most data-backed resistance zones on the chart right now, and analyst Ali Martinez, who posts on X as
Bitcoin cannot get past $63,000. That is not a round-number observation, it is one of the most data-backed resistance zones on the chart right now, and analyst Ali Martinez, who posts on X as Ali Charts, laid it out in plain terms.
According to his analysis, roughly 623,000 BTC were previously transacted around the $63,000 level, making it one of the largest and most significant resistance clusters Bitcoin has ever faced.
The implication is straightforward: a large number of holders who bought near that price are sitting at breakeven, and many of them will use any return to cost basis as an exit opportunity. That selling pressure does not disappear until Bitcoin breaks cleanly above it.
In his recent X post, the analyst mapped out the downside scenario with equal precision. If Bitcoin fails to break through $63,000 and then loses the $59,000 level, transaction history points to two specific support zones that would come into play.
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The first is $46,000, where 115,000 BTC were previously transacted. The second is $37,870, where 206,000 BTC changed hands, a deeper, more significant floor if things deteriorate further.
Neither level is close to where Bitcoin trades today, which is exactly the point. The gap between current price and meaningful support is wider than it looks.
“If BTC fails to break through $63,000 and then loses $59,000, transaction history points to the next major support zones,” the analyst wrote in the post.
Where Ali Martinez gets more specific is with the MVRV Pricing Bands, a metric that tracks whether Bitcoin is trading at a premium or discount to its realized value.
In an X post, right now he says Bitcoin is stuck between the -0.5 and -1.0 MVRV bands, with no clear valuation edge in either direction.
Trending on TheStreet RoundtableThe level he is waiting for is the -1.0 MVRV band, which currently sits at $49,867. If Bitcoin reaches that level, he would consider it a major buy signal and a prime accumulation area. That is the number worth writing down.
“If BTC reaches that level, I would consider it a major buy signal and a prime accumulation area,” he wrote in the post. “Bitcoin is stuck in no man’s land, according to the MVRV Pricing Bands.”
