Bitcoin is moving higher ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision, but analyst Ali Martinez believes the more important move could come after the FOMC meeting. BTC gained roughly 1.4% earlie
Bitcoin is moving higher ahead of today’s Federal Reserve decision, but analyst Ali Martinez believes the more important move could come after the FOMC meeting.
BTC gained roughly 1.4% earlier today, moving from around $80,600 toward $81,700.
That rebound might look constructive at first glance.
Ali, however, points to several on-chain signals that make him cautious about what happens once the Fed decision is out.
Bitcoin needs to hold $81,000 and reclaim $84,500. If $81,000 gives way, he believes $77,000 becomes the next important downside target.
Ali has tracked Bitcoin’s behavior around previous FOMC meetings and says the first-hour reaction has often been relatively small, frequently below 1%.
The more meaningful move has tended to appear over the following 24 hours.
That makes the immediate candle after the Fed decision less useful than what Bitcoin does later tonight and into Thursday.
Markets broadly expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged today, with the policy rate currently at 3.75%-4%. The real focus is on whether Chairman Kevin Warsh leaves the door open for another hike in December. Reuters reports that traders have been pricing a much greater chance of a December move than an October hike.
That creates a difficult setup for BTC.
PREDICTION: BITCOIN DUMP AFTER FOMC 1/7
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 28, 2026
A hawkish message could strengthen the dollar and push Treasury yields higher. The U.S. 10-year yield was already around 5.01% ahead of the decision.
Both conditions tend to make speculative assets less attractive.
Ali’s bearish case does not rely only on the Fed.
He points to whale activity as another warning.
Large Bitcoin holders recently realized roughly $156 million in profits.
Their combined holdings also dropped by approximately 8,162 BTC over the latest 24 hours, worth around $664 million at current prices.
That does not automatically mean whales expect a crash.
But selling from large holders immediately before a major macro event adds potential supply at a time when Bitcoin is already trading close to support.
Ali interprets that as evidence that some large investors are reducing risk before the FOMC decision.
Read also: Claude AI Predicts Bitcoin and XRP Prices After the October FOMC Meeting
Another part of the setup is the Coinbase Premium Index.
Ali notes that the index has fallen to roughly -0.17, one of its weakest readings since September.
A negative Coinbase premium means BTC is trading cheaper on Coinbase than on Binance.
That can indicate weaker relative demand from U.S.-based investors, especially institutional and larger traders that frequently use Coinbase.
So despite Bitcoin bouncing today, the underlying demand picture is not especially convincing.
That is why I would not read the move toward $82,000 as confirmation that the market has turned bullish.
The most useful part of Ali’s analysis is his price map.
On-chain URPD data shows that almost one million BTC previously changed hands around $81,000.
That makes it a dense cost-basis region.
If price remains above it, a large group of recent buyers stays near break-even or in profit.
If BTC falls below it, those same holders move underwater, which can create additional selling pressure.
Ali’s next downside level is $77,000.
Below there, his larger bearish target is around $67,000.
The upside map is equally clear.
Bitcoin needs to break through $84,500, where approximately 620,000 BTC previously changed hands.
Above that, Ali is watching $92,000 and eventually $104,000.
BTC level What Ali is watching $81,000 Main support $77,000 Next downside target if support fails $67,000 Larger bearish target $84,500 Bullish confirmation level $92,000 Next upside target $104,000 Larger bullish targetI would not interpret Ali’s call as a prediction that Bitcoin automatically dumps the moment the Fed releases its statement.
His argument is more conditional than that.
The warning signs are there.
Whales are realizing profits. Large-holder balances have fallen. The Coinbase premium is negative. Bitcoin is sitting directly around a high-volume support zone.
But BTC has not broken that support yet.
For me, $81,000 versus $84,500 gives traders a much cleaner framework than trying to guess whether the first FOMC candle will be green or red.
If Bitcoin survives the Fed decision, holds $81,000 and pushes through $84,500, Ali’s bearish thesis weakens considerably.
If $81,000 breaks after the meeting, the on-chain setup gives the move more credibility, and $77,000 becomes the obvious next area to watch.
The Fed may provide the catalyst.
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The post Analyst Warns Bitcoin Price Could Drop to $77K After FOMC appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
