TLDR Bitcoin experienced a sharp rally above $79,000 following the release of August CPI data showing 3.4% annual inflation in line with projections Monthly core CPI increased 0.3%, marginall
Bitcoin recovered toward the $79,000 level on Friday following the release of US August inflation figures that aligned with market consensus, providing temporary relief to investors after several days of heightened volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) PriceThe Consumer Price Index registered a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual advance, precisely meeting analyst forecasts. Bitcoin initially dropped to $76,000 immediately after the data release before staging a rapid turnaround, posting gains exceeding 3% for the session.
US stock indices mirrored this price action. The S&P 500 advanced 1% while the Nasdaq climbed 1.1%, both reversing earlier session weakness.
Energy costs, particularly gasoline, emerged as the primary inflation contributor in August, surging 3.9% and representing over a third of the headline CPI gain. The broader energy category increased 2.1%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, registered 0.3% monthly growth — marginally higher than the 0.2% consensus estimate. Year-over-year, core inflation moderated slightly to 2.4%.
Market analyst Ted Pillows expressed skepticism regarding the durability of Bitcoin’s rebound. He highlighted that the daily MACD indicator remains in a downtrend and noted that Friday’s price surge lacked substantial spot market support. He suggested that while a strong weekly close above $80,000 accompanied by robust ETF flows could propel BTC toward $85,000, current technical conditions favor a downward move.
$BTC daily MACD continues to trend down.
Today's pump was also not driven by strong spot demand, and now the rate hike odds are going up too.
If Bitcoin manages a strong weekly close above $80,000 with decent ETF flows, it could rally to $85,000.
But looking at the current… https://t.co/AeacHnvd9Epic.twitter.com/Z69uUY9y8e
— Ted (@TedPillows) September 11, 2026
In the aftermath of the inflation report, market participants rapidly adjusted their expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed the implied probability of a 0.25% rate increase at the September 16 FOMC meeting climbing to 85–86%, a substantial increase from the 60–70% range observed the previous week.
BREAKING: The odds of a September interest rate hike surge to 79% after US CPI inflation hits 3.4% in August.
It is incredible to think that, at the start of 2026, markets were expecting the Fed’s 3rd interest rate CUT of the year this month.
Inflation roars on and "higher for… https://t.co/tpoSKnyRuupic.twitter.com/397cPkrWm2
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 11, 2026
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has indicated the central bank remains committed to additional tightening if inflation fails to demonstrate a sustained trajectory toward the 2% objective.
Treasury yields on 30-year bonds experienced substantial intraday volatility, momentarily reaching the highest levels observed since June 2004 before settling at 5.309%.
Singapore-based trading firm QCP Capital highlighted that sustained elevated bond yields present a fundamental headwind for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The firm noted that the current macro backdrop — characterized by a 5% risk-free return without corresponding economic expansion — undermines the bullish thesis that propelled Bitcoin from $63,000 to $82,000 during late August.
QCP suggested Bitcoin may regain momentum once Treasury buyback programs introduce sufficient liquidity into financial markets.
Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continued as a secondary risk factor. Escalating military actions affecting maritime shipping routes and an expanding conflict zone involving Houthi forces and Saudi Arabia contributed to an 11% weekly surge in crude oil prices.
Despite Friday’s gains, Bitcoin remained poised to record a nearly 2% weekly decline, ending a three-week winning streak.
The post Bitcoin (BTC) Rallies 3% After CPI Release — But Pullback May Be Ahead, Analyst Warns appeared first on Blockonomi.
