Bitcoin wiped out its gains from early October by falling back to around $83,300 on October 7, after surpassing $86,400 the day before. The $81,300 level now draws attention, but its loss wou
Bitcoin wiped out its gains from early October by falling back to around $83,300 on October 7, after surpassing $86,400 the day before. The $81,300 level now draws attention, but its loss would only become truly worrying with ETF outflows and loss-making sales by recent investors.
Bitcoin dropped to about $82,850 during the session, against a peak near $85,800. It thus gives up most of its monthly advance after starting October around $83,700.
The decline is not limited to the spot market. Forced liquidations reached nearly $696 million across all cryptos in 24 hours, mainly among long positions. This purge intensified a move already fueled by an unfavorable macroeconomic environment.
Start your crypto adventure safely with KrakenThis link uses an affiliate program.Several indicators highlight the current fragility :
The drop remains severe in the short term, but it has not yet broken all the structure observed since September. Bitcoin notably remains above several medium-term moving averages between $80,000 and $82,000.
The $81,000 to $82,000 zone corresponds to the starting point of the September bullish breakout. It is also near the average acquisition price of investors exposed to US bitcoin ETFs.
A drop below $82,600 would put part of these holders at a loss. This change could slow fund inflows or even encourage some recent investors to reduce their exposure.
Bitfinex analysts distinguish between a normal correction and a deeper breakdown. Between $84,000 and $81,300, they consider bitcoin would test its former September resistance turned support. This scenario would delay a recovery without automatically invalidating the trend.
“A sustained move below $81,300, accompanied by ETF outflows and a short-term holders’ SOPR below 1, would show that recent buyers are giving up,” they estimate. In that case, the $77,000 zone would come back into focus.
SOPR measures whether transferred bitcoins are sold at a profit or a loss. A drop below 1 would indicate recent holders are starting, on average, to sell their assets at a loss.
The rise above $86,000 was based on relatively low volumes. Glassnode estimates new capital represented less than two-fifths of bitcoin’s recent realized market cap increase.
Holders also took advantage of the move above $85,000 to secure their gains. Their deposits to exchange platforms reached the highest level in a year, increasing the supply available for sale.
“Trading volumes remain unusually low” on spot platforms and US ETFs, notes Frederik Theissen, Head of Research at Glassnode. The break through resistance thus lacked the necessary support to sustainably establish bitcoin above $86,000.
Options, however, remain biased towards medium-term gains. Traders spend more on call options than on bearish protections. This setup reveals still positive expectations, without guaranteeing an immediate rebound.
The crypto market also suffers from the rise of US bond yields. The ten-year rate hovers around 5.28%, while Brent crude exceeds $100 and the dollar reaches its highest level since April 2025.
These moves reduce the appeal of risky assets. A high bond yield raises the cost of capital, while expensive oil feeds inflation fears and limits the Federal Reserve’s maneuvering room.
The bitcoin price must now reclaim the $84,350 to $85,000 zone to ease selling pressure. Conversely, a sustained close below $81,300, coupled with ETF outflows and loss-making sales, would open the risk of falling back to $77,000. The technical level alone will not be enough: institutional flows will confirm or not the breakdown.
