The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of bitcoin are about to regain a fully bullish alignment for the first time since June 2025. However, the signal is not yet confirmed and its history
The 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of bitcoin are about to regain a fully bullish alignment for the first time since June 2025. However, the signal is not yet confirmed and its history shows that it can precede both a strong rise and a quickly interrupted move.
The average bitcoin price over 50 days is already above its 100 and 200-day averages. Now a last crossover is missing: the 100-day average needs to surpass the 200-day to produce the expected alignment.
The three indicators move around very close levels, which may allow the signal to form quickly. Here is the configuration observed on October 5 :
The 100-day average therefore remains about 46 dollars below the 200-day average. Maintaining the price above recent levels should gradually raise this intermediate average, but a correction could delay or prevent the crossover.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of the Indian exchange Giottus, explains :
This crossover would restore the order: 50 days above 100 days, then 100 days above 200 days, for the first time since the previous alignment on June 24, 2025.
This configuration should not be confused with the classic “golden cross”. The latter forms when the 50-day moving average directly crosses the 200-day average. Bitcoin already produced this signal at the beginning of September.
The movement currently expected concerns the crossover of the 100 and 200-day averages. This would complete a structure in which the most recent average prices are all above older trends.
Technical analysts generally interpret this order as confirmation of a positive momentum over several horizons. Short-term, medium-term, and long-term buyers then benefit from a progressively higher average price.
However, this signal is inherently delayed. Moving averages are based on past prices. They validate a trend already underway rather than precisely announcing its starting point.
The BTC indeed rose by more than 40% in the third quarter, rising from its June lows to about 87000 dollars. “The latest signal confirms that the recovery has held,” says Vikram Subburaj. It alone does not allow assessment of the remaining potential.
Some historical episodes reinforce the bullish scenario. On October 27, 2020, bitcoin was worth about 13,600 dollars when its three moving averages took this configuration. The signal remained active until May 2021, during which time the price went over 64,000 dollars.
Another alignment formed in early November 2023. It held until May 2024, while bitcoin rose from about 35,000 to 73,000 dollars.
More recent precedents call for caution though. The June 2025 alignment lasted 97 days, but the price rose only from about 106,000 to 112,000 dollars. The June 2024 alignment held only twenty days before a nearly 10% drop.
“The crossover strengthens the hypothesis of a trend, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” warns the Giottus CEO. According to him, price behavior after confirmation will reveal whether the structure becomes sustainable or remains a short episode.
The real test will be around the 50-day moving average, near 79500 dollars. Bitcoin still trades well above it, but this gap can shrink quickly during a correction.
A bounce on this average would show that buyers continue to defend the recent trend. A lasting break would weaken the signal, even if the three-indicator alignment were meanwhile confirmed.
In the shorter term, the price still struggles to sustainably break through the 87,000 dollar area. The rise slowed as the US dollar index strengthened, which generally puts pressure on assets priced in dollars.
The market will also watch the Federal Reserve minutes on October 7, then US inflation on October 14. These events can affect bond yields and interrupt an otherwise favorable technical configuration. The future crossover would thus confirm the strength of the recovery underway for three months. It would constitute neither a guarantee of increase nor an autonomous buy signal.
