Bitcoin's 2024 halving cycle is not playing out the way anyone drew it up. Two of the most respected voices in the space are now publicly disagreeing on what that means, and the stakes are hi
Bitcoin's 2024 halving cycle is not playing out the way anyone drew it up. Two of the most respected voices in the space are now publicly disagreeing on what that means, and the stakes are high enough that the argument matters.
Pierre Rochard, VP of Research at Riot Platforms, posted on X without qualification:
"So far this is the worst halving cycle in Bitcoin history."
No caveats, no chart, no explanation needed. The numbers speak for themselves, Bitcoin is trading near $60,000, roughly 50 percent below its all-time high of $126,000, and the cycle that was supposed to follow the standard post-halving playbook has failed to deliver.
Previous halving cycles followed a recognizable pattern. The halving reduces Bitcoin's new supply, demand stays constant or grows, price eventually reflects that squeeze.
The 2020 cycle produced an extended bull run that peaked well into the following year.
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This time, Bitcoin hit its all-time high 37 days before the halving, front-running the event entirely, and has been in retreat since.
The institutional wave came early, ETF flows front-loaded the demand, and the market priced in the halving before it happened.
Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, takes the contrarian view. His argument is straightforward: if you believe in halving cycles at all, you have to account for the fact that this cycle accelerated.
The ATH arriving before the halving, not after, means the cycle compressed. By that logic, the bottom is not coming, it is already behind us.
"I find it incredibly interesting how some people are so certain that the bottom is coming in 4 months because “cycles.” But we had an ATH 37 days before the halving, so it would seem even if you believe in cycles you should reason out the cycles accelerated. The bottom is in," Mow wrote in an X post.
The conventional cycle model says pain continues for several more months. Mow says that model is being applied to a cycle it no longer fits.
One of them is going to be right. Bitcoin at $60,000 is where that argument gets settled.
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