Bitcoin’s one-year realized volatility has fallen to 43%, below that of Oracle, Coinbase, Honeywell and SanDisk, Grayscale Research showed in a report that Coin Bureau brought back into focus
Bitcoin’s one-year realized volatility has fallen to 43%, below that of Oracle, Coinbase, Honeywell and SanDisk, Grayscale Research showed in a report that Coin Bureau brought back into focus on October 27. This data could be taken as evidence that the asset is maturing. The finding flatters Bitcoin. It is less kind to crypto stocks.
A volatility check on twelve listed crypto companies tells a different story from the one Grayscale told about Bitcoin. Every one of them moved more than the coin over the past year, and every one of them lost more. So how calm has Bitcoin become, and why do the shares built around it remain so restless?
Calmer than at any point in its history. Grayscale’s report, “Putting Bitcoin’s Volatility in Context,” published on October 14, puts the one-year figure at 43%, against a ten-year average of 64% and 81% five years ago. It credits deeper liquidity, broader institutional ownership and regulated products such as spot ETFs.
Its chart places Bitcoin among the members of the S&P 500. JPMorgan, at about 20%, and Amazon, at about 31%, move less. Coinbase, at about 70%, and SanDisk, at about 110%, move far more.
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 27, 2026
BULLISH: Bitcoin is LESS VOLATILE than Oracle, Coinbase, Honeywell and Sandisk, per Grayscale.Bitcoin’s annualized realized volatility stood at 43%, below its decade-long average of 64% and the 81% recorded five years earlier.Grayscale places Bitcoin below roughly 19% of… pic.twitter.com/G4gsfPyXXT
One figure deserves care. Some coverage says 57% of S&P 500 companies are more volatile than Bitcoin, but Grayscale’s own histogram shows roughly 95 of about 500 stocks to Bitcoin’s right, close to the 19% that Coin Bureau quoted. Bitcoin is now an ordinary large-cap stock in volatility terms, not a sleepy one.
The shares carry roughly double the risk. Using daily closing prices from October 27, 2025, to October 26, 2026, Bitcoin’s volatility comes to 44% when measured on U.S. trading days, close to Grayscale’s figure. Robinhood and Coinbase come in at 71% and 72%, Strategy at 81%, Circle at 95%, and the miner-turned-AI host IREN at 105%.
One-year realized volatility, to October 26, 2026
The extra movement has not been rewarded. Bitcoin fell 29.9% over the twelve months, from a starting point close to its October 2025 record. Coinbase lost 55.0%, Strategy 51.6%, Galaxy 60.6%, and MARA 65.0%. Robinhood came closest to the coin, with a 33.6% decline.
Volatility against price change, October 2025 to October 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance
Because each company layers its own leverage on top of the coin. Coinbase earns more when trading is busy, and trading is busiest when prices move. Strategy funds its Bitcoin purchases with convertible debt and preferred shares, so its equity holders absorb the swings first. Miners carry fixed power costs against a revenue line that moves with the Bitcoin price.
The daily numbers show both forces at work. Over the past year, Strategy moved 1.51% for every 1% move in Bitcoin, Galaxy 1.35% and Coinbase 1.23%. Yet the correlation with Bitcoin runs only from 0.39 for IREN to 0.81 for Strategy, which means much of the remaining movement comes from earnings, funding and company news rather than the coin itself.
Company news, above all. Coinbase and Strategy report third-quarter results after the U.S. close on Thursday, October 29, the day after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. For two stocks that move 72% and 81% a year, results are the kind of company-specific event that Bitcoin itself does not have.
The coin still sets the backdrop. Bitcoin trades near $79,700, below its 50-day EMA at $80,757. Resistance sits at $81,480, where last week’s rebounds stalled, then $82,850, while Saturday’s low of $79,221 is the support that has held twice. Below it lies the 200-day EMA at $76,380.
BTCUSDT 1D chart. Source: Binance
Scenario
What it takes
Where BTC could go
Breakout
A daily close above $81,480
$82,850, last week’s ceiling
Range
Holding between $79,221 and $81,480
Back and forth around the 50-day EMA at $80,757
Breakdown
A daily close below $79,221
$76,380, the 200-day EMA
Grayscale’s point stands: Bitcoin has become a calmer asset. For investors who reach it through crypto stocks, the past year has been neither calm nor kind, and the fact that Bitcoin swings less than Coinbase cuts both ways.
The post Bitcoin Swings Less Than Coinbase and Oracle, Yet Crypto Stocks Move Up to 2.4 Times as Hard appeared first on Tokenist.
