After a tumultuous first half of 2026, Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of a technical rebound, drawing attention from chart analysts who have been waiting for the asset to confirm support
After a tumultuous first half of 2026, Bitcoin appears to be showing signs of a technical rebound, drawing attention from chart analysts who have been waiting for the asset to confirm support at a historic level. The cryptocurrency recently bounced off a trend line that has been closely watched by market observers for eight years.
Dave the Wave, a prominent Bitcoin technical analyst known for his use of the Logarithmic Growth Curve, published a monthly chart on TradingView that highlights Bitcoin’s recent price action. The current monthly candle shows Bitcoin trading near $64,443, representing an increase of roughly 10% for the month, after dipping to a 21-month low close to $57,750. This recent low coincided almost exactly with the lower green band of Dave’s growth curve.
Dave the Wave’s Logarithmic Growth Curve has served as a long-term Bitcoin price framework since 2018. The model maps the cryptocurrency’s price within a broad channel indicating strong but diminishing growth as the asset matures. The lower band of this channel, which the analyst refers to as the “buy zone”, has historically marked significant market bottoms. Previously, these bands identified major lows in March 2020 and November 2022, while the upper band has twice aligned with cycle peaks.
July 2026 marks the third time Bitcoin has returned to this critical support area. In a note to subscribers issued two weeks earlier, Dave the Wave noted that Bitcoin’s price was once again testing the lower curve, a pattern also observed ahead of the last two significant recoveries. The analyst compared the current retest—accompanied by a trading volume of 4.28 million—to the 2022 support test, which saw a heavier volume of 11.21 million. This softer volume aligns with the theory that Bitcoin’s overall volatility is decreasing as the market advances.
Mini dictionary: Dave the Wave, a pseudonymous technical analyst, has built a strong following among Bitcoin traders and investors for developing the Logarithmic Growth Curve—a model that attempts to forecast broad Bitcoin price cycles using log-scaled support and resistance bands drawn over multi-year charts.
Support TestDateVolume (million)First Support TestMarch 2020N/ASecond Support TestNovember 202211.21Third Support TestJuly 20264.28The current decline represents a drawdown of approximately 50% from the all-time high of nearly $126,000 set in October 2025. While significant, this is notably less severe than the 75% to 90% corrections seen during prior bear markets. The return to structural support, combined with a positive double-digit monthly gain, suggests that buyers are defending the curve. According to Dave the Wave’s long-term projections, the model points towards potential price targets between $140,000 and $200,000 by the end of the decade. Over a longer time frame, he forecasts the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $500,000 to $1 million within ten years, although he anticipates diminishing returns as each cycle matures.
For proponents of this framework, the implication is that Bitcoin’s recent price action is testing established support, and the moderate volume may signal that most sellers have already exited the market rather than further capitulation occurring.
Dave the Wave cautions that his model does not guarantee outcomes. In late June, Bitcoin closed a full week below the 200-week moving average, a technical event that has historically only occurred during severe market downturns. He emphasizes that models are not infallible and that technical support levels only count if they hold through volatility. At last check, Bitcoin remained volatile, trading in the low $60,000 range, and the market has yet to decisively confirm the retest.
Despite these uncertainties, sentiment has shifted. After months of discussing further possible declines, traders are now debating the likelihood that Bitcoin has found a sustainable floor. A recent reversal—marked by a more than 10% monthly gain from the lower curve band—resembles previous market bottoms but does not ensure the trend has reversed for good.
No single indicator or model can guarantee that the bear market has ended. However, the presence of multiple bottoming signals, a shallower correction, and lighter trading volume lend cautious support to the argument that the worst may be over.
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