Three Things to Know ETF analyst Eric Balchunas sees a Bitcoin base forming in the $60,000s after the Nvidia-driven selloff. Daily momentum sits deep in oversold territory, yet sellers still
Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has dismissed the latest market rout as one more recurring panic. He expects Bitcoin to find its footing in that range.
The call lands after a bruising week for crypto, with tech stock weakness spilling into digital assets. His floor sits close to where Bitcoin trades now. Traders want to know whether buyers will defend that zone or let sellers push through it.
Balchunas called the Nvidia-driven selloff the "280th nervous breakdown." Markets have absorbed panics like this many times before, he said. In his view, the sell-off does not mark a lasting change in direction.
His near-term stance on Bitcoin is bearish. He still sees a base forming somewhere in the $60,000s. Balchunas gave no time frame for that floor and set no conditions around it.
Bitcoin now trades near $64K, so his floor sits only about 6% below the current price. One nearer support level stands between today's price and that range.
A sustained close well below the $60Ks would show the floor did not hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin sits far below both of its main trend lines. The 50-day moving average, which tracks the average closing price over roughly the past two months, stands near $77K. The 200-day average, a gauge of the longer trend, sits close to $76K.
Price trading under both lines marks a clear downtrend. Those averages now act as ceilings, and any rebound would likely meet sellers as it approaches them. The 50-day line has also slipped toward the 200-day, a sign that recent weakness is dragging on the broader picture.
The losses have piled up quickly. Bitcoin fell about 15% over the past week and roughly 22% over the past month. That leaves the coin near the bottom of its 30-day range.
Trading over the past day was flat, which looks like a pause after heavy selling. Sellers have stepped back for now, though buyers have not yet shown they can push price higher.
RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, has dropped to about 20. Readings under 30 count as oversold, and this one sits deep in that zone. Such extremes often come before relief bounces, as sellers run out of fresh supply.
An oversold reading is no buy signal on its own, though. Prices can stay stretched for days during a strong decline.
Other gauges show the selling has not let up. The MACD, which compares short and longer price averages, remains below its signal line, so momentum is still pointing down. Trend-strength readings confirm that sellers drive the trend, so any bounce may prove brief.
Daily support sits around $62K. Buyers have defended that area during the recent slide, and it is the last cushion above the range Balchunas named. A clean break would expose the next support near $59K.
A drop there would put Bitcoin at the low edge of his predicted base. Holding that level would back his view of a passing scare.
Overhead, the first resistance stands near $75K, just under both moving averages. Bitcoin would need to reclaim that level to ease the selling pressure. A further push through $80K would undo most of the bearish setup the chart shows today.
Bitcoin could reach the Balchunas floor within days. Oversold momentum hints at a bounce, while sellers still control the trend.
The bigger risk sits outside crypto. More stress in tech stocks could drag Bitcoin through support before any relief rally takes hold.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
