Most market predictions hedge. Hayes' did not. Asked by TheStreet Roundtable to name a call the market is getting completely wrong, the BitMEX co-founder did not flinch: "The AI bubble will p
Most market predictions hedge. Hayes' did not. Asked by TheStreet Roundtable to name a call the market is getting completely wrong, the BitMEX co-founder did not flinch:
"The AI bubble will pop in or around 2028," Arthur said.
"The Fed and other central banks will print money to save the banking system from the bad AI debt they underwrote. This will not solve the financial crisis."
It's a striking call from someone whose macro predictions have, for better or worse, shaped a significant portion of crypto discourse over the past several years. Hayes isn't simply betting against AI valuations. He is just making a specific claim about how the unwind plays out, who pays for it, and where the money goes next.
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Hayes' thesis hinges on a distinction between liquidity and innovation and it's the line that does the most work in his entire argument.
"Central banks cannot print their way out of Moore's law, and this liquidity will flow to Bitcoin," Hayes told the outlet.
In other words, printing money can paper over a banking crisis, but it cannot manufacture the computing breakthroughs the AI trade was priced on.
He closed the point with a forecast that left little room for ambiguity:
"Bitcoin will perform better than ever as trillions of dollars of liquidity flow into the hardest money ever created."
According to Hayes, the mechanism behind his prediction is already underway, not some distant hypothetical.
"The banking system and central banks will create credit to deliver to defense spending programs and AI CAPEX expenditures," he said. "Once the AI bubble pops, the authorities will attempt to print their way out of a financial crisis."
That response, he argued, is where the real story begins.
This is not a standalone prediction. Earlier in the same conversation, Hayes said that the Federal Reserve is already trapped by its own balance sheet.
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"The Fed is already fiscally dominated, which is why I do not believe the newly appointed chairperson Kevin Warsh will be able to shrink the Fed's balance sheet," he added.
"Nor will he be able to meaningfully hike rates when the U.S. Treasury must roll over trillions of dollars a year of short-term treasury bills."
Hayes also pointed to a quieter structural shift already underway, one he believes is being underpriced relative to the AI story.
"Stablecoins are popular and will disintermediate domestic banking systems in emerging markets," he said, arguing that dollar-backed stablecoins are already moving volumes that rival major payment networks, without the banking license that would normally be required to do so.
In his view, traditional banking survives where currencies still hold real purchasing power, largely in advanced Western economies, but loses ground everywhere else.
That dynamic, he suggested, is a separate but related symptom of the same monetary trust problem driving his Bitcoin thesis.
Even his own conviction has a limit.
Asked what would invalidate his thesis entirely, Hayes was specific:
"The thesis could be invalidated if politicians around the world could implement austerity and get re-elected in democracies or receive implicit support of the elites in autocracies."
That, he implied, is a low-probability outcome, which is precisely why his 2028 call stands as confidently as it does.
Hayes pushed back when asked if younger Americans, priced out of homes and savings, are turning to Bitcoin by default.
"These young Americans turned to pseudo-gambling," he said, pointing to sports betting, zero-day options, and meme coins as proof.
With wages stagnant and inflation eating into what little they can save, he argued, most are chasing quick wins, not allocating deliberately into Bitcoin.
Related: Veteran trader says one trend could send Bitcoin to $1 million
