Key Insights Bitcoin price pressure grows as long-term holders realize gains of around $80,000. Fading volume and crowded long positions increase near-term pullback risk. A 12-hour close abov
Bitcoin trades at $78,353.62 after falling 1.20% during the past 24 hours. The Bitcoin price has cooled following a 21.82% weekly surge. Profit-taking has increased after the rally pushed momentum into overbought territory. Traders also await Friday’s PCE inflation report, which could reshape interest-rate expectations. New demand now faces a test near the $80,000 threshold.
Bitcoin also recorded a 94.37% weekly correlation with gold. That relationship suggests both assets responded to similar macro forces during the rally. Treasury liquidity expectations, lower yields, and ETF inflows supported demand. Still, correlation alone does not prove that gold directly drove the move.
The recent advance gained force after Bitcoin cleared $70,000 on August 19. Short liquidations then reached $2.74 billion, compared with $256.66 million for longs. That imbalance helped propel the Bitcoin price breakout as bearish positions closed rapidly.
Derivative conditions have since changed. During the latest 24-hour period, long liquidations reached $310.03 million. Short liquidations totaled only $60.77 million. Bitcoin accounted for $133.73 million, or more than one-third of market liquidations.
Open interest still sits near $25.35 billion, close to August’s $25.7 billion peak. Meanwhile, the funding rate is positive at 0.000091%. These readings show that leveraged bullish exposure has not cleared completely. Therefore, the Bitcoin price now needs spot buyers rather than another short squeeze.
Technical momentum also looks stretched. The 12-hour RSI reached 81.70 before slipping below its 83.83 signal line. Buying volume has weakened since the August 19 breakout. Together, those readings increase the risk of a pullback without confirming a lasting market top.
CryptoQuant data indicates that most investor groups now hold unrealized profits. Its unrealized PnL is 21.1 for long-term holders. Short-term holders register 13.4, while one-day-to-one-month capital records 13. 9. The newest investors show a lower reading of 5.3.
BTC Age-Band Unrealized PnL Distribution. Source: CryptoQuant data Profitable positions give more investors room to sell. The LTH-SOPR to STH-SOPR ratio briefly climbed toward 1.4 near $80,000. That move showed long-term holders realizing gains faster than short-term participants. The ratio later fell to 0.93, showing stronger relative realized performance among short-term holders.
This shift does not mean older investors have stopped selling. Instead, it shows that the balance between seller groups has changed. The BTC price must attract enough demand to absorb coins released by profitable holders. Continued ETF inflows could support Bitcoin’s price, but weaker spot activity could expose nearby floors.
Glassnode’s URPD data maps where circulating coins last moved. The $82,045 area holds about 83,800 BTC, representing 0.42% of supply. That relatively thin pocket could allow Bitcoin’s price to advance quickly after a confirmed breakout.
A heavier supply appears higher. Around 549,200 BTC last moved near $84,569, while another band starts near $83,300. Together, those areas account for almost 5% of the circulating supply. Owners near break-even may sell into strength, creating a difficult test for spot demand.
Bitcoin URPD data chart. Source: Glassnode A 12-hour Bitcoin price close above $80,070 would break the current flag structure. Moves beyond $81,343 and $81,449 would strengthen confirmation. The Bitcoin price could then test $82,430 to $82,741 before reaching $83,681. Sustained buying above that supply wall could expose the $88,000 to $90,000 region.
Near-term consolidation may keep the BTC price between $77,300 and $79,731 before the PCE release. A drop below $77,300 would weaken the setup. The next downside markers sit near $75,545 and $73,500. Conversely, a decisive recovery above $80,000 would challenge sellers and improve Bitcoin’s price structure.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets can experience sharp price movements.
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