SpaceX stock had a wild few days. Shares in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) sank to a fresh all-time low on Monday, then closed almost 6% higher. Two big dates this week could deci
SpaceX stock had a wild few days. Shares in Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SPCX) sank to a fresh all-time low on Monday, then closed almost 6% higher. Two big dates this week could decide where the stock goes next.
What is SPCX stock price today?
SPCX closed at $114.53, up 5.68%. After hours, SpaceX shares added another 1.79% to $116.58, pushing market cap back above $1.50 trillion.
The stock is still 15% below its $135 IPO price and about half of its $225.64 record high.
SPCX fell as low as $104.83 on Monday, a new all-time low, after a rough July despite new launch contracts and a mostly successful Starship test.
Hours before the bounce, Elon Musk replied "I think so" to a post calling the dip an "insane opportunity in retrospect," the same day shares hit bottom.
The 1-hour chart shows a breakout from a descending channel in place since late June. Price reclaimed the 20-hour EMA ($111.16) and 50-hour EMA ($113.77), a sign momentum is shifting.
Level Type
Price Zone
What It Means
Immediate resistance
$116 – $117
Needs a clean break to confirm
Next resistance
$120.88
200-hour EMA
Fibonacci resistance
$122.44
0.236 retracement level
Upside target
$128 – $132
Includes $131.99 Fib level
Key support
$111 – $113
Breakout retest zone
Downside support
$107 – $110
Watch if breakout fails
A clean break above $122.44 could open the $128 to $132 zone. A drop back inside the old channel would risk a retest near $107 to $110. These levels are zones to watch, not guarantees.
What is the earnings forecast for Q2 2026?SpaceX reports its first quarterly earnings as a public firm on August 4, after the close. Analysts expect a loss of $0.26 per share for the quarter ending June 2026, based on nine separate estimates.
Revenue is pegged between $6.82 billion and $6.90 billion, with a GAAP net loss of $2.00 billion to $2.08 billion.
Losses are expected to shrink after that, with EPS estimates of $0.04 in Q3 2026, $0.14 in Q4 2026, and $0.18 in Q1 2027.
For the full year, analysts see a 2026 loss of $0.64 per share, a swing to profit at $0.63 in 2027, then $3.50 in 2028 and $4.46 in 2029.
Estimates have not moved up or down in the past four weeks. That said, the consensus itself has drifted lower over the past month, both for the full 2026 year and for the June quarter, even without formal revisions.
That points to a market quietly lowering the bar even as it holds its numbers steady on paper.
Here's the part many traders miss. Total shares outstanding sit near 13.2 billion, but fewer than 639 million, under 5% of the total, can currently be bought or sold. The rest is held by employees and early backers under the standard post-IPO lockup agreement.
That lockup starts expiring August 6, just two days after earnings. Up to 911.5 million additional shares could become tradable at once, nearly tripling the current public float.
A flood of new sellable shares hitting the market can pressure a stock's price, especially if early holders decide to lock in gains from the run-up off the 52-week low.
What do derivatives markets show?Trading volume on SPCX products jumped over 1,149% to roughly $2.01 billion, with open interest near $717.14 million, up 6.40%.
The overall 24-hour long/short ratio sits close to even at 0.97. But positioning looks more lopsided on individual exchanges. Binance's SPCX/USDT long/short account ratio runs at 3.89, and OKX shows a similar 3.86, meaning far more retail accounts are betting on a move higher than lower.
Among Binance's top traders specifically, the account ratio climbs even further to 4.44, though their actual position-size ratio is a more modest 2.42, suggesting bigger players are hedging some of that long bias.
Liquidations tell a story of shorts getting squeezed as the price climbed. Over the past hour, $446.91K in positions were wiped out, with $372.47K of that from short traders.
Over four hours, total liquidations reached $562.83K, again mostly shorts at $468.73K. Zoom out to 24 hours, and the picture flips: $9.04 million was liquidated in total, but $5.50 million of that came from longs, against $3.54 million from shorts, showing the pain has spread both ways as the stock has whipsawed.
SpaceX Stock Price Prediction: What Comes NextThe setup looks bullish after the channel breakout, with a possible path toward $120 and then $122.44 if buyers stay in control. Clear that zone with real volume, and the $128 to $132 area, home to the $131.99 Fibonacci level, comes into view.
But earnings and the share unlock are two catalysts that could easily overwhelm any chart pattern. A revenue miss paired with nearly tripling the tradable share count in the same week is a lot for any stock to absorb.
Traders should watch the $111 to $113 support zone closely and see how shares react once both events are behind them.
Elon Musk's public confidence in the stock adds a wildcard to the mix, but it does not change what the earnings print or the unlock actually deliver. Until both play out, the setup remains open-ended in either direction.
DisclaimerThis article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions
