Weekly Market Outlook: BTC, CPI Data, Earnings & Rising Oil Prices

CALENDAR

• June CPI Inflation data - Tuesday
• June PPI Inflation data - Wednesday
• June Retail Sales data - Thursday
• July Philly Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
• July MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday
• July MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday
• ~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings

MAIN NEWS

1. Oil prices climbed to a one-month high after President Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian ports following a weekend of heavy U.S.-Iran airstrikes, raising supply concerns around the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude neared $85 a barrel while WTI rose to approximately $79.79, stoking fears of systemic inflation if energy supply disruptions persist.
2. The S&P 500 dropped 0.79% to 7,515.47 and the Nasdaq fell 1.55% to 25,873.18 on Monday, with tech shares posting the steepest sector losses. Energy was the lone bright spot among the S&P 500's 11 sectors, benefiting directly from the oil price surge.
3. Semiconductor shares were hit hard on Monday, with Intel, AMD, and Applied Materials each falling roughly 4%, weighed down by both the oil price spike and a sharp rout in SK Hynix shares. The selloff reflected broader investor concern over rising input costs and a risk-off shift driven by geopolitical instability.
4. Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,611, up 0.57% on the day, though it remains down 32.9% year-to-date and roughly 52% below its October 2025 peak of $126,080. Bitwise Asset Management frames the extended nine-month downturn as a potential setup for recovery, citing Bitcoin's dominant 64.2% crypto market share and historically strong July seasonality averaging a 10.7% gain.
5. The U.S. dollar traded little changed against major currencies on Tuesday as investors positioned ahead of the June CPI inflation report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony. June CPI is expected to show headline inflation easing to 3.8% year-on-year from 4.2% in May, though the recent reversal in energy prices may complicate the outlook.