Analyst reveals $3B Bitcoin buy coming this week

When it comes to buying Bitcoin (BTC), there is hardly anyone who can beat Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR).

But it's been some time since we saw chairman Michael Saylor making a happy announcement on X about their new mega Bitcoin buy.

This is because the company is gearing up to report its earnings for the first quarter of 2026. And as the rules go, no public company is supposed to make any major financial decision based on undisclosed internal financial data.

For Strategy, this means buying Bitcoin is off the table until the earnings report goes live on May 5, after the closing bell. 

But an analyst believes that the company's next Bitcoin shopping will be big.

Related: Michael Saylor's Strategy expands dollar reserve instead of Bitcoin

The data backing the thesis

Strategy's purchase history across its two most recent STRC ex-dividend cycles shows a clear and escalating pattern.

Strategy sells STRC, which is a series of perpetual preferred stock, to investors in exchange for cash. Investors who buy STRC receive a fixed monthly dividend, and Strategy uses the cash raised to buy more Bitcoin.

Analyst Taiki Maeda shared Strategy's Bitcoin purchase history across two such ex-dividend cycles.

An ex-dividend cycle is the recurring period between two consecutive ex-dividend dates. These are cutoff dates set by a company to determine which shareholders are eligible to receive an upcoming dividend payment.

If you own the stock before this date, you will receive the dividend. If you buy on or after this date, you don't. It essentially separates buyers who qualify for the payout from those who don't.

In the lead-up to the March 13 ex-dividend date, Maeda showed that Strategy deployed $1.539 billion worth of Bitcoin purchases over roughly two weeks. It started at just $5 million on Feb. 27 before accelerating sharply, peaking at $402 million on March 12, the day before the cutoff.

The April 15 cycle was significantly larger. Strategy spent $3.467 billion across 10 days, with purchases ramping dramatically in the final stretch. It went from $922 million on April 13, followed by $1.215 billion on April 14.

If the pattern holds, Maeda believes Strategy is in line for a much bigger purchase this week. 

"I'm expecting Saylor to buy $2-3B of BTC over the next 2 weeks via STRC, sending BTC above $80,000," Maeda wrote.

He added that most sellers have already exited.

"People capitulated and sold the bottom and there aren't enough marginal sellers to push us lower anymore."

Maeda now expects buying to begin this week and accelerate into May 14.

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What it means for Bitcoin's price right now

Bitcoin crossed $81,000 on May 5 for the first time since January. At press time, it was trading at $81,302 after gaining 1.3% in 24 hours. 

The key technical level is the 200-day moving average, which was at $83,417 at press time, as per TradingView. Bitcoin has not closed above it since January 2026. Clearing it would mark the first real trend reversal signal all year.

Meanwhile, Strategy holds 818,334 BTC at an average cost of $75,537 per coin. During the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin crashed to $62,000. This left the company sitting on roughly $14.46 billion in paper losses. Yet Saylor kept buying through the entire decline.

That consistent demand has been a floor under the market. If the STRC cycle plays out as Maeda expects, Strategy's re-entry into the market after the earnings blackout lifts could be the demand shock that finally pushes Bitcoin through resistance. 

If it doesn't, Bitcoin will have to hold above $80,000 on its own, without its biggest buyer in the market.

At press time, MSTR was trading 1.3% higher during market hours at $185.10.

Related: Saylor calls Bitcoin a 'superpower,' urges U.S. to secure millions of BTC