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Bitcoin

Analysts clash over whether Binance hack is Bitcoin’s FTX moment

Bitcoin tumbled after Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, was hit by what is believed to be the largest crypto hack ever. The attack has crypto traders on X debating one question: i

AnonymousCryptoCompass newsroom
October 31, 2026
5 min read
NEWS
Analysts clash over whether Binance hack is Bitcoin’s FTX moment
CryptoCompass editorial visual for bitcoin coverage.

Bitcoin tumbled after Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, was hit by what is believed to be the largest crypto hack ever.

The attack has crypto traders on X debating one question: is this another FTX moment?

Binance estimates the attack’s impact at about $6.3 billion. The exchange has said it will cover all losses.

Bitcoin price at press time. Source: Decibel

Bitcoin fell to about $76,000 as news of the hack spread, before steadying near $76,661, according to Decibel.

Related: Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Robinhood tumble after largest crypto hack ever

A black swan, or a bottom?

FTX was a major crypto exchange that collapsed in 2022 after misusing customer money, dragging the wider market down with it.

Some on X see history repeating. 

One DeFi research account posted a "black swan alert", a term for a rare, unexpected event with severe consequences. 

The X post claimed the hackers “immediately dumped everything,” triggering more than $1.5 billion in liquidations, where traders’ leveraged positions are forcibly closed. 

He also noted that Binance had blocked withdrawals and warned that the situation was "looking like the FTX collapse in 2022."

Watch Mehab Qureshi, senior editor at TheStreet, decode the Binance hack:

How did hackers drain $6.3 billion from Binance in about 20 minutes (3:39)

Popular analyst Ash Crypto also drew the FTX comparison, but reached a very different conclusion.

He noted on X that FTX’s crash marked Bitcoin’s bottom in the 2022 bear market, a period of falling prices. 

He argued the Binance hack “will mark the bottom for BTC in the 2026 bear market.”

Bitcoin price chart shared by Ash Crypto on X

His chart shows Bitcoin’s 2022 low arriving shortly after FTX’s collapse.

Bitcoin did bottom in late 2022, around the time FTX went under, before starting a long recovery.

Not another FTX

Meanwhile, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe rejected that comparison in blunt terms.

“FTX used client funds for other operations and blew itself up,” he wrote.

By contrast, he said Binance suffered “a sophisticated hack” and has enough money to cover the losses. 

He also pointed to the wider industry stepping in to help freeze stolen funds.

That response came within hours. Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, USDT, froze more than $1.5 billion, CEO Paolo Ardoino said on X.

Circle, which issues USDC, froze more than $800 million “in coordination with law enforcement,” CEO Jeremy Allaire wrote on X.

Ripple also froze affected funds in its RLUSD stablecoin.

World Liberty Financial, the crypto firm backed by President Donald Trump’s family, froze $27 million in its USD1 stablecoin linked to the hack, co-founder and CEO Zach Witkoff said on X.

“Protecting users and preventing bad actors from moving stolen funds is a shared responsibility,” he wrote.

Stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar, so their issuers can block specific wallets from moving them.

Binance has said around $3 billion has been frozen so far.

”All I’m seeing is that the industry has progressed,” van de Poppe wrote. 

He acknowledged that 2026 has seen many security breaches but said he’s confident they will be fixed.

A drop, but a resilient one

On price, van de Poppe wrote on X that Bitcoin "broke down, instead of up," falling to $76,000.

Even so, he said he was "positively surprised with the resilience of the underlying asset," given the size of the hack.

Van de Poppe said he had flagged $78,400 as a key price level. If Bitcoin failed to hold there, he expected a sharp slide toward $75,000, since there were no strong levels in between. 

That’s largely what played out.

Chart shared by Michaël Van de Poppe on X.

He now sees $78,000 as a “bearish flip,” meaning a level that used to act as a floor may now act as a ceiling. He expects it may take some time before markets return to neutral.

Still, he said he’s “still on the long side,” trader shorthand for expecting prices to rise.

If Bitcoin drops back to the $75,000 to $76,000 range, he sees “a great opportunity” to buy, with room to climb back toward recent highs. 

He added one condition: that the broader stock market doesn’t crash.

”This has been an hack within an exchange, has nothing to do with the underlying asset,” he wrote, a view that puts him firmly at odds with those calling it the next FTX.

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Related: Binance major shareholder says user funds are safe after $3B hack