In a Substack post published on Wednesday, Hayes said the current AI boom is being misclassified by markets. Investors treat the multi-trillion-dollar buildout of data centers and power plant
In a Substack post published on Wednesday, Hayes said the current AI boom is being misclassified by markets. Investors treat the multi-trillion-dollar buildout of data centers and power plants as pure technology growth.
In reality, he argued, it more closely resembles commercial real estate financed by heavy credit.
Hayes drew a clear distinction between the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2008 housing crisis. The earlier episode was an earnings failure.
The AI story, he said, is a credit story. Lenders, private credit funds and ultimately governments are underwriting data-center construction on the assumption that capital expenditure will keep accelerating forever.
He expects the pace of AI capital spending growth to begin decelerating in mid-to-late 2027 and become obvious by 2028.
Credit will continue to expand even as real construction slows, creating the classic conditions for a solvency crisis among the most leveraged players.
Because AI is viewed as a strategic national-security priority in both the United States and China, Hayes believes authorities will not allow major failures.
Instead, governments will step in with liquidity injections larger than those seen after 2008. That flood of new money, he wrote, will eventually find its way into crypto markets.
“As credit expands against a deceleration of AI CAPEX spend, Bitcoin will bottom and begin a secular rise,” Hayes said. Once the panic-driven stimulus arrives, the asset could climb to $1 million and beyond.
“Bitcoin emerged as a response to the irresponsible bailout of the subprime banksters, which, when you think about it, is an amazing feat. This time around, Bitcoin already exists and can now fulfil the dreams of many by hitting $1 million or higher,” he added.
Hayes acknowledged that Bitcoin may still face further weakness in the short term, possibly testing the $50,000–$70,000 range while capital continues flowing into AI projects.
“Maybe Bitcoin chops between $60,000 to $70,000 for a while with a potential downside of $50,000. However, while all of this occurs the AI capital wastage accelerates, which lays the foundation for a bottoming and slow grind higher for Bitcoin,” Hayes mentioned.
The long-term thesis, however, remains intact in his view: the next major liquidity event will be triggered by an AI credit bust, and Bitcoin stands to be one of the primary beneficiaries.
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