CryptoCon is back with another long-term Bitcoin cycle analysis, and his message remains consistent: the market may look mature on the surface, but he still believes the broader bull cycle is
CryptoCon is back with another long-term Bitcoin cycle analysis, and his message remains consistent: the market may look mature on the surface, but he still believes the broader bull cycle is much earlier than many investors think.
His latest chart focuses on three-week Stochastic RSI phases, a framework he uses to compare Bitcoin’s current momentum structure with prior cycles.
The current reading has entered what he labels “Phase 1,” or the first early top.
Historically, those Phase 1 signals have not marked the end of Bitcoin’s broader cycle. Instead, they have often been followed by meaningful corrections before the market resumed higher.
The chart divides Bitcoin’s cycle into four recurring Stochastic RSI phases.
Phase 1 is the first early top.
Phase 2 is a second early top.
Phase 3 is where Bitcoin historically makes a new all-time-high move and reaches what CryptoCon calls the first cycle top.
Phase 4 represents the final cycle top.
The current 2026 reading is marked as another Phase 1.
That is the key to his thesis.
If the sequence repeats, Bitcoin would still have Phase 2, Phase 3 and eventually Phase 4 ahead.
His chart also highlights prior Phase 1 periods around June 2011, July 2015, June 2019, March 2023 and now October 2026.
Source: X/@CryptoCon_
Those previous first-phase signals were often followed by difficult corrections before the next stage of the cycle developed.
CryptoCon therefore expects short-term exhaustion and says he wants to see a meaningful Bitcoin low sometime between November and January.
This is where his view differs from many cycle analysts.
CryptoCon is not treating the current weakness as evidence that Bitcoin’s entire bullish cycle is ending.
He sees it as part of the normal cycle structure.
His broader argument is that Bitcoin typically gets roughly three years of bullish progression after a significant cycle low, and he believes that timing remains intact.
In that framework, a deep correction over the next few months would actually fit the thesis rather than break it.
The chart even labels the current position in a way that implies a local top within a much larger structure.
That means his outlook is bearish in the short term and bullish over the longer term.
Read also: Crypto Market Crash: How Low Can Bitcoin And Ethereum Go?
There is something useful in CryptoCon’s framework because it forces traders to separate momentum exhaustion from cycle completion.
A high Stochastic RSI reading can tell you that Bitcoin is stretched on a higher timeframe without telling you that the entire bull market is over.
That distinction is valuable.
The weakness is that cycle analogs can become overly clean when viewed backward.
Bitcoin’s macro environment, ETF structure, institutional ownership and liquidity conditions are very different from 2011, 2015 or even 2019.
So the sequence may rhyme without repeating exactly.
The most convincing part of CryptoCon’s argument is not the exact timing of every phase. It is the idea that a short-term top and a long-term bullish cycle can coexist.
Well, it is coherent.
Bitcoin can absolutely be close to a local exhaustion point and still have a much larger bullish cycle ahead.
The part I would be more cautious with is the expectation that the next meaningful low must arrive between November and January.
That is a useful window to monitor, but cycle timing is never precise enough to treat a three-month period as guaranteed.
The chart becomes much more interesting if Bitcoin does suffer another deep correction, resets higher-timeframe momentum, and then begins recovering while Stochastic RSI starts building toward the next phase.
If that happens, CryptoCon’s “the bull market hasn’t really started yet” argument becomes much stronger.
If Bitcoin instead keeps advancing without the correction he expects, then the cycle sequence would need to be reworked.
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The post Bitcoin Bull Market? Not Yet, Analyst Warns appeared first on CaptainAltcoin.
