Bitcoin Could Face "One Final Dump" Before Bottom, Alphractal CEO Warns

Bitcoin(BTC) may face another leg down before completing its current bear phase, despite reclaiming the $70,000 level this week, according to Alphractal founder Joao Wedson.

Wedson's On-Chain Warning

In an Apr. 10 post on X, Wedson pointed to a specific on-chain signal: the Investor Price falling below the Long-Term Holder Realized Price. The Investor Price tracks the average cost basis of economically active coins. When it drops below what long-term holders paid, it means newer capital entered at lower prices than veteran investors.

Wedson said this pattern typically follows distribution phases, when demand weakens and marginal buyers pull back.

"Long-term holders historically sell less when the price approaches or dips below their cost basis," he wrote on X. "This signal suggests that one final dump in Bitcoin’s price is still likely to happen."

The LTH Realized Price now appears to be breaking above the Investor Price.

That signals a transition where weaker hands exit and stronger holders absorb supply — but the absorption is slower than usual, which explains why BTC often settles into an intermediate accumulation range during these periods.

Also Read:Hong Kong Grants First Stablecoin Licenses To HSBC And Standard Chartered Venture

Bitcoin Mid-Cycle Reset

With the Investor Price sitting below the LTH Realized Price, rallies tend to stall quickly. Sellers looking to exit at breakeven create overhead resistance that caps upside moves, reinforcing sideways-to-lower price action until fresh demand materializes.

Wedson described the current structure as resembling a mid-cycle reset rather than a final bottom. The market appears to be digesting prior excesses and rebalancing cost bases while coins migrate toward more patient holders. "The environment favors time-based accumulation over momentum-driven expansion," Wedson wrote.

BTC Price Swings Above $70,000

Bitcoin broke above $70,000 on Apr. 7, buoyed by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a pause in broader market volatility.

The move followed a sustained recovery from lows near $60,000 hit in February, with spot ETF inflows providing steady institutional demand through March and early April. BTC briefly touched $73,000 before pulling back, and the $70,000 level has since acted as a contested support zone rather than confirmed floor.

Read Next:Cardano Shorts Wiped Out As Whale Wallets Reach Four-Month High Near $0.25