Bitcoin Drops Just 4% After Record Binance Hack

The record theft of 6.4 billion dollars suffered by Binance only caused Bitcoin to retreat by about 4%, compared to nearly 11% during a failed attack in 2018. This resistance mainly reflects a new distribution of liquidity: a growing share of BTC now escapes the panic reactions typical of crypto platforms.

In Brief

• Bitcoin resists Binance’s record hack, unlike its sharp drop during the 2018 attack.
• The growth of the crypto market and the rise of Bitcoin ETFs helped limit panic.
• The freezing of nearly 3 billion dollars in stablecoins reduced immediate selling pressure.
• Binance mobilizes its reserves to cover losses and reassure investors.
• More than 3 billion dollars of assets remain under the hacker’s control, which could cause further turmoil.

The Binance shock weighs six times less than in 2018

Bitcoin dropped to around 76,400 dollars after the announcement of the hack, about 6% below its level observed after the Federal Reserve decision. In March 2018, an attempted attack against Binance had caused its price to fall from 10,740 to 9,690 dollars within minutes, while the exchange claimed to have lost no funds.

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The difference is not due to the severity of the two incidents. The current theft is estimated at 6.3 billion dollars by Binance and 6.43 billion by Elliptic. It exceeds by more than four times the 1.46 billion dollars stolen from Bybit in February 2025. Its relative weight in the market is nevertheless much lower than an attack in 2018.

Several changes explain this limited reaction :

• The crypto market is worth about 2,600 billion dollars, compared to just over 400 billion in March 2018 ;
• American Bitcoin ETFs hold nearly 1.3 million BTC, about 6% of the supply ;
• Nearly 3 billion dollars stolen have already been frozen ;
• Binance has set aside more than 6.34 billion dollars to cover losses ;
• Part of the missing assets is being bought back from the market or during private transactions ;
• Clients’ funds reportedly have not been directly affected.

Relative to the total capitalization of the sector, the amount of the hack represents about 0.25%. It remains considerable for a company, but it is no longer enough to immediately threaten the entire market as a crisis affecting a large platform could do eight years earlier.

Binance claims that no private key leak has been identified. Its investigation, still ongoing, has however discovered several points of compromise after initially mentioning an infected laptop of a DevOps engineer.

ETFs isolated part of Bitcoin from panic

BTC’s resistance also comes from the transformation of its holders. In 2018, most exchanges still depended on crypto platforms. An attack against Binance could thus provoke an almost immediate reaction among investors exposed to the same operational risk.

Spot ETFs have since created a distinct circuit. Their shareholders buy shares from a traditional securities account and do not directly hold their bitcoins on Binance. A suspension of exchange withdrawals therefore does not force them to move their funds or sell in a hurry.

BlackRock, Fidelity and other issuers collectively hold nearly 1.3 million BTC. Alone, BlackRock’s IBIT fund received 136 million dollars on October 28. Sovereign wealth funds Mubadala and Abu Dhabi Investment Council are also among the institutional investors exposed to the sector.

However, this demand does not cancel the risk of selling. The attack started after the U.S. markets closed. The flows recorded on Thursday therefore do not yet fully reflect the reaction of ETF holders. The data from the next session is a more relevant indicator.

Bitcoin thus benefits from more diversified liquidity, but not necessarily more permanently available. ETFs do not trade over the weekend, while the crypto market remains open. A new sale of stolen assets when traditional markets are closed could therefore test this apparent solidity.

Freezing of stablecoins prevented immediate selling pressure

The nature of the stolen assets also limited the impact. Elliptic verified the freezing of about 2.84 billion dollars, mainly in USDT and USDC. Tether blocked more than 1.56 billion USDT, while Circle immobilized over 800 million USDC.

These funds can no longer be easily sold. Binance is simultaneously buying back the missing tokens to replenish its reserves. This operation creates demand likely to partially offset sales related to the hack.

However, the danger is not gone. The hacker would still control about 3.33 billion dollars in assets impossible to freeze, including 18,270 BTC and over 500,000 ETH. The bitcoins have been split among several addresses without being sent to a platform at the time of the last observations.

The limited decline of BTC therefore does not mean that the market has already absorbed all the stolen funds. It mainly shows that half the loot was immobilized before conversion and that Binance has sufficient resources to avoid, at this stage, a solvency crisis.

The true test will come when withdrawals are fully restored and the hacker possibly tries to liquidate the still-mobile assets. The market maturity softened the first shock; it must now prove that it can withstand its second wave.