Bitcoin has already anticipated the quantum threat, according to Bernstein
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2026
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BTC
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Could quantum computing break Bitcoin? According to Bernstein, the threat is very real, but the network still has 3 to 5 years to prepare. Here is what investors and developers need to know in 2026 to anticipate this technological revolution and protect their assets.
In Brief
- Bitcoin has already anticipated the quantum risk in its price, according to Bernstein, reducing the potential impact of a future attack.
- The Bitcoin market has 3 to 5 years to adopt post-quantum solutions, such as key rotation and new secure algorithms.
- Institutional players (Strategy, BlackRock) will play a key role in accelerating this transition and strengthening network security.
Quantum computing, a real but not immediate threat to Bitcoin
Recent advances in quantum computing have reduced the number of qubits needed to attack crypto algorithms like ECDSA, which Bitcoin uses. Bernstein, in a recent note published in April 2026, confirms this threat is now credible but remains manageable in the medium term. Indeed, Bitcoin has a 3 to 5 year window to prepare. This, thanks to progressive upgrades and coordination between developers, miners, and institutions.
Technological advances have compressed the initially estimated timeframes for a successful quantum attack. Yet, Bernstein emphasizes that the risk is neither existential nor immediate. According to Gautam Chhugani, this threat should be viewed as an upgrade cycle rather than an imminent crisis. However, Google Quantum AI data shows a quantum attack could theoretically succeed in under 10 minutes! But only if ideal conditions are met, which remains unlikely in the short term.
How can Bitcoin prepare for the post-quantum era?
To face the quantum threat, Bitcoin must adopt concrete technical solutions. Bernstein notably recommends private key rotation and abandoning reused addresses, which are the most vulnerable. A transition to post-quantum algorithms, like Lamport, Winternitz, or XMSS, is also considered. These solutions would secure transactions even against powerful quantum computers.
However, the biggest challenge remains social. Indeed, convincing Bitcoin holders to migrate to new standards will take time, as past upgrades like Taproot and SegWit have shown. Bernstein estimates this transition could take several years due to the need to educate users and provide them with appropriate tools.
Quantum computing represents a major challenge for Bitcoin but also an opportunity to strengthen its security. With 3 to 5 years to act, developers and investors must collaborate to prepare this transition. And what if this threat became the catalyst for a new era for BTC?
