There is one technical indicator that has called every major Bitcoin bottom in the asset's 15-year trading history. It has never been broken on a weekly close. Not once. Bitcoin is sitting on
There is one technical indicator that has called every major Bitcoin bottom in the asset's 15-year trading history. It has never been broken on a weekly close. Not once. Bitcoin is sitting on it right now.
The 200-week moving average, the average of Bitcoin's closing price over the past 200 weeks, currently sits in the $54,000 to $64,000 range.
Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,000 today, July 31, 2026. That puts it directly on the line that has historically separated recoveries from crashes.
The first time Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average was in 2015. The price had collapsed from $1,163 in November 2013 all the way down to $152, an 87 percent decline.
The 200-week moving average held. Bitcoin recovered and went on to hit $19,783 in December 2017.
The second test came in late 2018. Bitcoin had fallen from $19,783 to $3,122, an 84 percent crash. The 200-week moving average held again. Bitcoin went on to hit $69,000 in November 2021.
The third test arrived in early 2023, following the 2022 collapse from $69,000 to $15,476 that took the Terra Luna implosion and FTX bankruptcy to produce.
The 200-week moving average held. Bitcoin went on to hit $126,000 in October 2025. Three touches. Three holds. Three recoveries to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin has now pulled back 51 percent from that $126,000 peak, driven by rising Treasury yields, sustained ETF outflows, Strategy's $8.32 billion unrealized loss creating market anxiety, and a hawkish Fed that has kept dollar strength elevated throughout 2026.
The result is a price that has drifted back into contact with the 200-week moving average for the fourth time in Bitcoin's history.
The 200-week moving average has never been broken on a weekly close. But past performance in financial markets does not guarantee future results, and analysts who predicted the 2022 bottom at the 200-week MA were right, while the dozens who called it broken were wrong.
What the indicator offers is not a guarantee. It offers the most data-backed context available for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long-term cycle.
Three times it marked the bottom. The fourth test is happening right now.
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