Bitcoin is approaching a golden cross, but historical data shows mixed outcomes for long-term rallies. USDT dominance is nearing a death cross, potentially signaling a shift toward riskier cr
Bitcoin nears a golden cross while USDT dominance approaches a death cross, signaling stronger risk appetite and potentially improving market momentum.
When Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average moves above its 200-day moving average, it indicates that recent price momentum is overtaking the longer-term trend. The pattern, known as a golden cross, is often viewed as a potential signal of a longer-term bullish market. However, its reliability in Bitcoin markets has been inconsistent. Because moving averages are lagging indicators, a golden cross often appears only after prices have already risen significantly.
According to historical data compiled by CoinDesk, Bitcoin has recorded 12 golden crosses since 2012, with only three leading to substantial and sustained rallies. After the first golden cross in February 2012, Bitcoin gained 306% within a year. Another signal in October 2015 remained intact for more than 2 years, during which Bitcoin climbed to nearly $19,800 in December 2017. The golden cross in May 2020 was followed by a 312% gain over the next year, with Bitcoin eventually reaching around $64,900.
The remaining cases delivered much weaker results. The golden crosses in July 2014 and July 2015 were both followed by death crosses within less than 2 months. The September 2021 golden cross produced only about a 1.5% gain before losing momentum, after which Bitcoin fell more than 70% from its peak over the following year.
Overall, among the nine cases with a complete three-month return period, Bitcoin recorded an average gain of around 24.9%. However, only three of the 12 golden crosses remained intact for a full year without being reversed by a death cross. Those three cases generated an average 12-month gain of approximately 250%, suggesting that while golden crosses can be relatively reliable as short-term signals, their ability to develop into long-term bull markets remains highly uncertain.
>>> More to read: What is Bitcoin: A Comprehensive Overview
Another indicator is also flashing a potentially bullish signal: USDT dominance. The metric represents the value of Tether (USDT) in circulation as a share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization.
In general, a decline in USDT dominance suggests that capital may be shifting from stablecoins, which often function as a form of “cash” within crypto markets, into Bitcoin and other risk assets. This is typically interpreted as a sign of improving risk appetite. However, because USDT dominance is a ratio, it can decline even without capital directly flowing out of USDT. If Bitcoin and other risk assets rise faster than the USDT supply, USDT dominance can fall as well.
According to TradingView data, USDT dominance is approaching a death cross, with its 50-day moving average nearing a move below the 200-day moving average. Historically, major shifts in USDT dominance have coincided with turning points in Bitcoin’s trend. For example, USDT dominance formed a golden cross last November and continued to rise, while Bitcoin began to weaken over the same period.
If Bitcoin is on the verge of forming a golden cross while USDT dominance moves toward a death cross, the 2 signals could point to a broader shift in market conditions: Bitcoin’s recent price momentum is strengthening, while the share of stablecoins in the overall crypto market is declining. Together, these trends could indicate that risk appetite is returning to the market. Still, a golden cross remains a lagging indicator, and whether the current setup develops into a sustained year-long bull market will ultimately depend on subsequent price action.
>>> More to read: Understanding Tether USDT
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〈Bitcoin Nears a Golden Cross as USDT Approaches a Death Cross〉這篇文章最早發佈於《CoinRank》。
