Bitcoin price today: what's driving the market this week Bitcoin is holding steady as traders wait for a stack of major events this week. The wider crypto market rose 0.72% to $2.2 trillion i
Bitcoin is holding steady as traders wait for a stack of major events this week. The wider crypto market rose 0.72% to $2.2 trillion in the past 24 hours, with BTC, ETH, XRP, and Solana all posting gains.
The rally comes as hopes build around the CLARITY Act, a bill that would split crypto oversight between the SEC and CFTC. But the bigger test for Bitcoin price direction may come from the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 28-29. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will lead his second meeting since taking office in May.
According to CME FedWatch data, markets see a 69.5% chance the Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. There's a 30.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike to 3.75%-4.00%.
Scenario
Probability
Likely Bitcoin Reaction
Rates held steady
69.5%
Mild relief, sideways to up
25bps hike
30.5%
Downside pressure
A rate hike would likely hurt Bitcoin price in the short term, since higher rates tend to pull money away from riskier assets. Warsh has said policymakers won't tolerate high inflation staying around, which keeps a hawkish surprise on the table.
What is the CLARITY Act and how could it affect crypto?The CLARITY Act would give clearer rules for digital assets in the US. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a final vote before the summer recess looks unlikely.
Senator Lummis has called the coming weeks potentially crypto's last real shot at solid market rules for years. Talks resume in Washington with roughly 9 working days left before recess.
Big names like BlackRock, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, Goldman Sachs, and Grayscale are publicly backing the bill. Their support signals institutions are positioning early, betting on eventual passage.
Economists expect June headline PCE inflation to rise 0.4%, after a -0.1% reading in May. The annual rate is projected at 4.1%.
Core PCE, the Fed's favored inflation gauge, is expected to climb 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
Jobless claims are forecast to jump to 203,000, up from 187,000 last week. A weaker labor market could push the Fed toward a more dovish tone, which historically has supported Bitcoin price gains.
Why is the crypto market volatile this week?Traders are also watching new Section 301 tariffs of 10% to 12.5% on 60 trading partners, announced near market close and not yet fully priced in.
Tensions between the US and Iran have added pressure on oil prices, with fewer tankers moving through key shipping routes. A similar situation in the past led to a 10% stock market drop over a few weeks.
Meanwhile, the yen sits near a 40-year low. Any hint of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan could trigger a carry trade unwind similar to August 2024, which briefly hit crypto and stock markets hard.
Is Bitcoin heading for a bull trap?Some chart watchers are flagging caution. One widely shared technical view points to a possible fakeout above $67,000 resistance, with a scenario mapping a move toward $70,000 before a pullback toward $58,000 and even $49,000.
This remains one interpretation among many, and Bitcoin price could just as easily move against it depending on how the Fed and CLARITY Act news unfold. No outcome is guaranteed, and traders should treat chart patterns as one input, not a certainty.
Michael Saylor, meanwhile, remains vocal on long-term adoption, arguing that keeping Bitcoin away from banks, governments, and mainstream markets limits its potential. His firm's average purchase price sits far below current levels, based on recent tracking data.
With the Fed decision, PCE data, and CLARITY Act talks all landing in the same week, BTC price could see sharp swings in either direction.
A dovish Fed and progress on crypto regulation would likely support gains. A hawkish surprise or stalled legislation could send BTC price lower toward key support zones.
DisclaimerThis article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and carry significant risk. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
