[Bitop Review] Glassnode: Is the Bitcoin Rebound Just a Dead Cat Bounce? Where is the Key Resistance?

The latest Glassnode report indicates that while the US-Iran ceasefire has helped Bitcoin (BTC) rebound above $70,000, comparing spot prices with key on-chain pricing models reveals that the market structurally remains in bear territory. However, with the gradual return of ETF inflows and the unwinding of derivatives leverage, the market is transitioning toward a more balanced structure. Short-term downside may be relatively limited, while overhead resistance is gradually strengthening.

Bitcoin Rebounds to $72,000, $78,000 Will Be the Near-Term Resistance

Influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, the energy, equities, and Bitcoin markets have experienced weeks of heightened uncertainty. However, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, a wave of optimism swept across global financial markets. Crude oil (WTI) prices fell, and Bitcoin (BTC) surged by 5% at one point to hit $72,857, marking a 3-week high.

The Glassnode report compares spot prices to key on-chain pricing models, showing that the market structurally remains in bear territory. The true market mean currently sits at $78,000. As Bitcoin's price rebounds toward this zone, it is likely to face strong selling pressure from recent buyers.

Bitcoin ETF Flows Gradually Turn Positive, Demand Yet to Fully Return

Flows into US spot ETFs have begun to improve, with the 14-day moving average shifting to a mild net inflow after a prolonged period of outflows. Although the magnitude of this shift is small, its directional significance is substantial.

If inflows continue to grow, it will provide stronger support for the market. At present, however, this appears to be early-stage market stabilization rather than a full-fledged return of institutional demand.

Derivatives Trading Activity Remains Sluggish; Watching for Market Momentum to Restart

Futures trading activity has dropped significantly, reflecting a noticeable decline in derivatives market participation.

This slowdown coincides with a sharp drop in open interest, further confirming that leverage is not only being flushed out, but traders are stepping back rather than immediately re-entering the market. The lackluster trading volume during the recent bounce suggests limited conviction behind this rally. Meanwhile, the decline in options implied volatility also points to a lack of market confidence.

Moving forward, a recovery in futures trading volume and a resurgence in the options market will serve as early signals that market momentum may be starting to rebuild.

Disclaimer: None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy.