‘Bombs will start going off’ if Iran deal fails, warns Nobel Peace Prize nominee
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A fresh warning from Washington is rattling already fragile peace efforts in the Middle East, as the countdown to a ceasefire deadline raises fears of renewed conflict and market turmoil.
The war, which began on Feb. 28 following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iran’s supreme leader and targeted key military infrastructure, has since evolved into a high-stakes geopolitical standoff with global implications.
After weeks of escalation, a temporary truce brokered through Pakistani mediation offered a brief pause in hostilities, raising hopes that diplomacy could prevail.
But with negotiations stalling and rhetoric intensifying, investors are once again bracing for volatility across energy and crypto markets.
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Pakistan talks fail to deliver breakthrough, tensions linger
The first round of high-level talks between the United States and Iran, held in Islamabad on April 11–12, failed to produce a deal after more than 21 hours of negotiations.
“We have been at it now for 21 hours. We’ve had a number of substantive discussions with the Iranians, that’s the good news,” U.S. Vice President JD Vance said at the time.
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“The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America.”
The talks, the first direct engagement between the two sides in decades, broke down largely over disagreements on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief.
Despite the setback, diplomatic efforts continued behind the scenes, with Pakistan maintaining its role as a mediator and both sides signaling conditional openness to further negotiations.
Trump warns of escalation as ceasefire deadline approaches
With the two-week ceasefire set to expire on Apr. 22, U.S. President Donald Trump has escalated his rhetoric, warning of severe consequences if a deal is not reached.
“Lots of bombs will start going off,” PBS News quoted Trump as saying on April 20, signaling the potential resumption of hostilities.
He added that Washington’s core demand remains unchanged, stating:
“No nuclear weapons. Very simple. Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
In a separate Truth Social post on April 19, Trump struck a more aggressive tone addressing the situation:
“We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”
The comments come as Trump continues to position himself as a global dealmaker, having previously argued he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for brokering multiple ceasefires worldwide.
Meanwhile, preparations are underway for a second round of talks in Pakistan, with Vance expected to depart Washington on April 21 to lead the U.S. delegation.
Iran’s participation remains uncertain, adding further tension to an already fragile diplomatic process.
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Markets hold steady, but downside risks remain
Crypto markets are showing tentative resilience as investors price in the possibility of renewed diplomacy ahead of the next round of talks.
Bitcoin traded around $75,768, up 2.62% on the day, while Ethereum rose 2.29% to $2,315 and XRP gained 2.52% to $1.43, reflecting cautious optimism across risk assets.
Oil markets, however, are signaling lingering concerns, with WTI crude rising to $87.72 per barrel at press time, up 4.44%, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to underpin supply risks.
The divergence highlights a fragile equilibrium. Crypto is holding ground on hopes of de-escalation, while oil prices continue to reflect geopolitical uncertainty.
A similar setup played out earlier this month.
When the first round of talks in Pakistan collapsed on April 12, oil prices spiked sharply while crypto markets moved lower. Bitcoin fell toward $71,500, and XRP and Ethereum posted losses as risk sentiment deteriorated.
With another round of negotiations looming and the ceasefire deadline approaching, markets appear increasingly sensitive to headlines, suggesting that any breakdown in talks could once again trigger a sharp rotation out of crypto and into traditional safe-haven assets.
