ETH Is Down 35% Against Bitcoin in a Year and Data Points to Another 40% Drop

• Ethereum has lost over 35% against Bitcoin over the past year, and experts say it could be heading for another 40% drop.
• Ether holdings on Binance have hit 3.62M ETH as BTC reserves dipped, which analysts say signals more pain for Ethereum holders.

Ethereum has lost more than 35% in the last 12 months against Bitcoin, new data shows. Analysts say there could be a further downtrend as long-term technical indicators and exchange data suggest a growing bearish trend.

The ETH/BTC pair continues to trade lower on a falling trendline in place since 2022. Each major attempt to break that line has failed, including the rejection that preceded Ethereum’s sharp underperformance between 2024 and 2025.

A similar pattern is now forming again. ETH/BTC retested the same long-term resistance area in August 2025, where it met pressure near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-month exponential moving average. Since then, the pair has turned lower and fallen below its 20-month EMA near 0.034 BTC.

That breakdown keeps sellers in control of the ETH/BTC structure. If the trend continues, analysts are watching 0.0176 BTC as the next major downside target. That level lines up with the 2020 cycle bottom and would represent about another 40% decline from current levels.

Exchange Data Adds Pressure to Ethereum Outlook

Exchange reserves are adding to the bearish case for Ethereum against Bitcoin. CryptoQuant data shows Binance held about 3.62 million ETH in May, equal to roughly 24.6% of all Ether held across exchanges.

Rising exchange reserves often show that more coins are available for sale. That does not always mean immediate selling, but it raises the risk of selling pressure if demand remains weak.

Bitcoin is showing the opposite pattern. Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have declined, suggesting more BTC is moving away from exchanges and into longer-term storage. That creates a tighter supply setup for Bitcoin.

Analyst Darkfost also tracked several large ETH inflows to Binance in early May. These included 216,152 ETH worth about $511 million on May 6, followed by 98,552 ETH worth $224 million on May 8 and 125,146 ETH worth $288 million on May 9.

Those transfers came during corrective phases in ETH price action. Darkfost said the behavior may reflect emotional reactions from holders rather than planned profit-taking. The inflows also help explain why Ethereum has remained stuck in consolidation for several weeks.

On the dollar chart, Ethereum is trading near $2,323. Short-term analysis remains weak, with ETH trading below its 200-day moving average. If price fails to hold support near $2,320, traders are watching $2,250 and $2,150 as lower levels.

A recovery above $2,387 could allow Ethereum to retest $2,500. If ETH stabilizes around that level, the next upside target is near $2,660. For now, the medium-term structure has not confirmed a trend recovery.

Despite the weak ETH/BTC setup, some analysts remain bullish on Ethereum’s long-term dollar price. Bitmine chairman Tom Lee said at Consensus Miami that he expects ETH to finish the year between $9,000 and $12,000. He also projected Bitcoin between $150,000 and $200,000.

Lee pointed to tokenization and agentic AI as potential drivers of demand for Ethereum. His company, Bitmine, holds over 5.18 million ETH, a 4.29% share of the total circulating supply.

Earlier this month, Bitmine bought 10,000 ETH from the Ethereum Foundation in an OTC deal worth just over $23 million.

However, those forecasts require a large move from current levels. ETH would need to gain more than 400% to reach the lower end of Lee’s range near $9,000. That kind of rally would likely need stronger spot demand, reduced exchange inflows, and a reversal in ETH/BTC momentum.

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