TD Cowen Says 4 Crypto Treasury Firms Are Buys

CNBC's report on TD Cowen's latest screen of Bitcoin treasury companies put four names in focus, and the appeal for crypto investors is simple: some public stocks may be trading below the value of the Bitcoin they already hold on their balance sheets.

CNBC highlighted the call, but the accessible details in this run come from Decrypt's September 16, 2025 summary of TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza's note. Decrypt said 4 of 13 tracked Bitcoin-buying firms traded at meaningful discounts to the value of their holdings, while Strategy's 1.29x premium showed the market was still willing to pay up for the category leader.

Why the call matters for crypto equities

Crypto treasury firms are different from miners, exchanges, and token issuers because the core investor question is not transaction revenue or hash rate, but how much Bitcoin sits on the balance sheet and how the stock trades against that pile. That is why TD Cowen's discount screen matters: it tries to measure whether public markets are underpricing disclosed treasury assets rather than merely judging a company's operating business.

The setup also matters for retail investors because disclosure is stronger than hype in this part of the market. SEC filings from Semler Scientific, Sequans, and DDC Enterprise give investors verifiable treasury balances, and that transparency is more useful when attention keeps rotating between crypto themes such as Bitcoin and Ether ETF inflows and network stories like Ethereum activity staying strong despite weak ETH price action.

The regulatory angle here is disclosure rather than new rulemaking. Periodic filings such as SEC Form 10-Q and SEC-filed earnings releases let investors verify treasury size and fair-value treatment even when TD Cowen's exact screening inputs were not publicly available in this run.

That gap between hard disclosure and market attention is part of the thesis. Decrypt cited GSR analyst Carlos Guzman saying the premium spread is partly about visibility rather than balance-sheet math alone.

"A lot of this is an attention game."

Carlos Guzman in Decrypt's reporting on TD Cowen's screen

The names behind TD Cowen's discount thesis

Semler Scientific

Decrypt said Semler Scientific traded at a -4% discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings. In its September 30, 2025 Form 10-Q, Semler said it held approximately 4,733 Bitcoin with a cost basis of $448,989 and fair value of $539,844, excluding 315 BTC pledged as collateral.

Semler's case is the cleanest expression of the trade because the reported -4% gap is modest and the treasury is directly visible in a filing. That combination gives investors a balance-sheet reference point without asking them to rely on a private model.

Sequans Communications

Decrypt said Sequans traded at a -25% discount, making it the deepest markdown among the names cited in the report. Sequans said in its SEC-filed preliminary third-quarter 2025 earnings release that it held 3,234 Bitcoin with a market value of $365.6 million at September 30, 2025.

That -25% discount is why Sequans stands out. If investors believe the 3,234 BTC treasury is durable, a rerating could matter as much as Bitcoin's next move.

DDC Enterprise

Decrypt also put DDC Enterprise on the discounted list at -18%. DDC said in its September 4, 2025 SEC-filed earnings release that total Bitcoin holdings had reached 1,008 BTC as of the reporting date.

The attraction in DDC is not just the discount, but the fact that the treasury balance is already large enough to be auditable in public markets. A reported -18% gap against a disclosed 1,008 BTC position gives investors a concrete way to judge whether sentiment has overshot the underlying asset value.

Bitcoin Treasury Corporation

A single source, Decrypt's summary of TD Cowen's note, reported that Bitcoin Treasury Corp traded at a -18% discount, and that exact markdown was not independently confirmed from a company filing in this run. What is confirmed is that Bitcoin Treasury Corporation said in a December 18, 2025 company release that it bought 771.37 Bitcoin on June 26 and 27, 2025 and described share repurchases as an option when its stock trades at a deep discount.

That buyback language matters because it shows how a treasury company can respond when the market price falls below asset value. Instead of using discounted equity to add more Bitcoin, management can argue that repurchasing stock is the cleaner use of capital.

What could strengthen or weaken the bullish case

The upside case is straightforward if the valuation gap closes. Decrypt's comparison of discounts as deep as -25% and -18% against Strategy's 1.29x premium suggests some of the return opportunity would come from multiple expansion, not only from Bitcoin price appreciation.

The downside case is concentration. Treasuries of 4,733 BTC at Semler, 3,234 BTC at Sequans, and 1,008 BTC at DDC tie equity performance tightly to a single volatile asset and to management's ability to raise capital without excessive dilution.

Investors also need to be careful about source quality. The underlying TD Cowen note was not directly retrieved here, so the exact methodology behind the discounts remains unconfirmed and is presented only through Decrypt's reporting.

Outlook

The next thing to watch is whether more treasury companies start using public filings and repurchase programs to defend net asset value discounts. Bitcoin Treasury Corporation's explicit discussion of buybacks at a deep discount gives that idea a corporate-finance framework rather than treating it as a pure crypto trade.

If the market keeps rewarding the largest vehicle with a 1.29x premium while smaller names sit below treasury value, then balance-sheet transparency may become a bigger differentiator across crypto equities. If those discounts persist, the more important question for investors will be which management teams can turn filed Bitcoin balances into credible capital allocation discipline.

FAQ: Crypto treasury firms and TD Cowen's call

What is a crypto treasury firm? It is a public company whose balance sheet includes a meaningful crypto reserve, usually Bitcoin, that can influence valuation as much as the operating business. In this case, the filed holdings range from 1,008 BTC at DDC to 4,733 BTC at Semler.

Why might analysts favor these companies over other crypto stocks in some setups? A treasury stock can rerate if the market closes the gap between its share price and its disclosed Bitcoin holdings. Decrypt's summary of TD Cowen's note pointed to discounts between -4% and -25%, while Strategy's 1.29x premium showed the category does not trade on one uniform valuation rule.

Are these stocks riskier than holding Bitcoin directly? They can be, because investors take Bitcoin exposure plus company-specific risks such as dilution, financing choices, and buyback execution. The reported discounts of -18% and -25% show that equity value can diverge sharply from the treasury asset itself.

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency and digital asset markets carry significant risk. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.