Two Wall Street Banks Mark $60K as Bitcoin’s Floor Zone

Key Takeaways

• Standard Chartered says Bitcoin’s $59K low on June 5 marked the definitive cycle bottom.
• Charles Schwab independently flags ~$60K as strong support at the 200-week average.
• Standard Chartered holds $100K Bitcoin and $4K Ethereum year-end targets.
• An October 2025 peak may have pulled this cycle’s timeline forward.

With BTC trading near $64,000 on June 14th, both views put current prices just above what these institutions consider a structural support zone, though the two banks reach that conclusion by different routes and with different conviction.

Standard Chartered: “Winter Is Over”

In a research note published June 12, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, declared that Bitcoin’s drop to roughly $59,000 on June 5 marked the definitive cycle low. “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring,” he wrote, per CoinDesk. The $59,000 level represents a 53% retracement from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.

Kendrick attributes the bottom to two macro shifts rather than technicals. First, the SpaceX IPO absorbed more than $5.72 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF redemptions since mid-May, as investors liquidated crypto to free cash for the listing; with the IPO now trading, that specific selling pressure has cleared. Second, progress toward a US-Iran peace deal ahead of the G7 summit has pushed Brent crude toward $87, easing inflation pressure and cooling Treasury yields, both of which had weighed on risk assets. The bank maintains year-end targets of $100,000 for Bitcoin and $4,000 for Ethereum, with Kendrick flagging ETH as structurally positioned to outperform BTC as the recovery matures.

The call is conditional, not declared complete. Standard Chartered is watching three signals to confirm $59,000 as a permanent floor: a return to net-positive US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, renewed corporate treasury buying, and sustained oil-price stabilization or decline. Until all three confirm, it remains a high-conviction view rather than a verified outcome.

Charles Schwab: A Classic Bear Market With a Floor Near $60K

Charles Schwab frames the same zone more cautiously. Jim Ferraioli, the firm’s Director of Digital Currencies Research, describes Bitcoin’s condition as a classic bear market, down roughly 50% from its highs with sentiment washed out.

He sees strong fundamental support near $60,000 for two reasons: it aligns with the 200-week moving average, which has historically held during major bear markets, and it sits just above the all-in production cost for the most efficient miners. He is careful to note that support does not prevent price from briefly passing through; it marks a historically significant floor, not a guarantee. Crucially, Ferraioli does not expect a near-term bull market. He projects range-bound action between $60,000 and $80,000, with $80,000 acting as a ceiling because it represents the average cost basis of buyers from the past 18 months, many of whom lost roughly half their investment and are likely to sell at breakeven.

Two Banks, One Level, Two Conclusions

The agreement is on the number, not the outcome. Both institutions converge on the $59,000 to $60,000 area as structurally important, which is itself notable: a macro-and-flows desk and a fundamentals-and-technicals desk arriving at the same floor from opposite analytical directions. But Standard Chartered reads it as the launchpad for a recovery to $100,000, while Schwab reads it as the lower bound of a months-long range capped at $80,000 by trapped supply. For readers, the useful takeaway is the floor both agree on, paired with a genuine disagreement on what happens above it.

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The Four-Year Cycle: A Reason for Caution and a Door

There is a longer-term lens worth holding alongside the bank calls. Bitcoin has historically moved in a roughly four-year cycle tied to its halving, with bull-market peaks followed by year-long bear markets before the next leg up. If that cycle is still in play, the timing matters. Bitcoin topped in October 2025, and it is now only June 2026, roughly eight months past the peak. In prior cycles, the bottom often arrived closer to a full year or more after the top, which would argue for caution before declaring the low is in.

But the same framework leaves a door open. This cycle’s peak landed in October, earlier than the November-to-December tops that closed out prior cycles. An earlier peak could mean an earlier bottom, compressing the timeline rather than extending it. If the cycle has shifted forward by a month or two, the June low near $59,000 could plausibly sit close to where a historical bottom would fall. The four-year pattern is a reason not to assume the worst is over, but it does not rule out that the worst has already passed.

Where the Thesis Gets Proven

The confirmation signals are concrete and near-term. A sustained return of positive net US spot Bitcoin ETF inflows after the recent outflow streak would be the clearest demand signal, and renewed corporate treasury buying, which Standard Chartered is watching closely, would echo the accumulation that supported prior cycle lows. On the macro side, stable or falling oil prices tied to the US-Iran situation would validate Kendrick’s thesis, while a breakdown in those talks would cut against it. On the chart, holding above the $60,000 zone both banks flag keeps the bottom thesis intact; a decisive break below would challenge it. The banks have named the level; the data over the coming weeks decides whether it holds.

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