Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act just a 24% chance of becoming law in 2026, even as President Donald Trump presses the Senate to pass the bill. Key Points: Odds of the CLARITY Act
Polymarket traders now give the CLARITY Act just a 24% chance of becoming law in 2026, even as President Donald Trump presses the Senate to pass the bill.
- Odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 fell to about 24% on Jul. 13, down from above 70% earlier this year.
- Trump urged senators to approve the bill in honor of the late Lindsey Graham, warning that China could dominate crypto and AI.
- Lawmakers have roughly four weeks before the Aug. 8 recess, a window many view as the bill's last realistic chance this year.
The president posted the appeal on Truth Social on Jul. 13, asking senators to approve the crypto market structure bill in honor of Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina Republican who died over the weekend at 71. He warned that China and other countries want control of digital assets and artificial intelligence. "Don't let China win on either subject," he wrote.
The timing is tight. The Senate returned to Washington the same day, leaving roughly four weeks before the recess that begins Aug. 8.
Traders were unmoved. As of Jul. 13, Polymarket priced the odds of the bill becoming law this year near 24%, down from above 70% earlier in 2026.
The Senate Banking Committee approved the bill 15-9 in May, with two Democrats joining Republicans, but the measure still needs 60 votes on the floor. Graham's death and the continued absence of Mitch McConnell leave the majority with almost no room for error.
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Elizabeth Warrenurged Senate leaders in a letter to add ethics guardrails that would bar the president, senior officials and their families from profiting off the crypto industry.
Financial disclosures show Trump earned more than $1 billion from crypto-related ventures last year. Cynthia Lummis, one of the bill's main sponsors, backed Trump's call and said the measure should reach his desk.
Galaxy Digitalcut its passage odds to 50-50, citing the shrinking calendar, unresolved ethics disputes and a crowded Senate agenda that could push consideration into September. Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, argued momentum is still building and a floor vote before the recess remains achievable.
A new draft may shift the debate. Senate staff are expected to release an updated version of the bill this week, reportedly adding more than 70 pages, including stronger consumer protections.
Prediction markets have soured on the bill in stages. Polymarket odds stood near 74% in May, slid to about 47% in June as ethics objections hardened, briefly recovered above 50% around the Jul. 4 text release, and have now fallen to their lowest levels of the year.
The bill builds on the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law signed last July, which remains the only major crypto statute Congress has delivered.
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