XRP fell to $1.188 on Friday morning, putting it at the zone between $1.19 and $1.20 for the third time in eight days. Around 7:40 a.m. CET one XRP cost roughly $1.19, or €1.07, the lowest le
XRP fell to $1.188 on Friday morning, putting it at the zone between $1.19 and $1.20 for the third time in eight days. Around 7:40 a.m. CET one XRP cost roughly $1.19, or €1.07, the lowest level since August 20. What the data shows: the support held on October 30 and again late on Thursday night, while on the derivatives market far more accounts are betting on rising prices than on falling ones. Our assessment follows further down: this long overhang can prop up the zone, but it can also speed up a break.
Where the price could head over a horizon of months is covered in our XRP price prediction. This piece is about the next few days: the three lows of the past week, futures positioning at OKX, the additional 280 million XRP now sitting on Binance, and the US jobs report, which could move the entire crypto market this afternoon.
A support is a price area where, in the past, enough buyers stepped in to halt a decline. In the case of XRP, that area can currently be pinned down almost to the exact cent. On October 30, one day after the attack on Binance's hot wallets, the daily low was $1.197. On Thursday, XRP dropped to $1.198 by midnight. On Friday morning, at $1.188, it slipped just below the zone for the first time before recovering to about $1.19.
From a chart perspective, three tests in such a short span cut both ways. When a level holds repeatedly, it gains weight, because many market participants place their buy orders right there. Yet every further test also uses up demand: anyone who wanted to buy at $1.20 already did so on the first two occasions. At $1.188, the third test came in one cent lower than the previous two. A clear break would only be a daily close well below that mark.
To put the range in context, the high of the past 30 days was $1.50. Measured from today's price, XRP has lost a good 20 percent since that peak. The 90-day low, at $0.985 from mid-August, sits considerably lower.
When our analysis of the XRP to Bitcoin ratio was published on Thursday afternoon, XRP was still trading at around $1.28. Earlier that morning it had even touched $1.32. Then the Nasdaq sell-off set in, led by chip stocks, and pulled Bitcoin below $77,000. XRP followed the move and had shed almost another 7 percent by Friday morning. The relative weakness against Bitcoin that the analysis examined has therefore not narrowed.
Two things are new since that analysis appeared. First, the $1.24 level, which still held as the daily low on November 2, has given way. Second, the options market was right. On November 4, XRP options priced in a move of 8.7 percent in either direction through November 8. From the November 4 close of $1.304 to Friday morning's low, the decline amounts to 8.9 percent. The expected swing has thus been used up two days before expiry.
Moving averages smooth the price path over a fixed number of days. Many traders use them as a kind of trend filter: if the price is above, the trend counts as intact; if it is below, as damaged. For XRP, the picture on Friday looks like this:
These values are based on daily closing prices for the XRP/USD pair on Kraken over 200 trading days, compiled by cryptoticker.io itself on November 6, 2026. The order of the lines is striking: the 50-day line sits above the 100-day line, which in turn sits above the 200-day line. The medium-term uptrend from late summer is therefore still visible in the averages, even though the price itself has left it. At $1.272, the 200-day line is the first level XRP would need to reclaim for the pullback to become a correction within an uptrend again.
Open interest measures the value of all outstanding futures contracts on a coin. If it rises while the price falls, new positions are being added rather than old ones closed. At OKX, open interest across all XRP contracts stood at $106.6 million on October 24. By November 4 it had climbed to $132.1 million, and on November 5, after the slide, it was still $122.4 million. That is almost 15 percent more than two weeks ago, even though the price fell over the same period.
Trading volume in XRP contracts at OKX came to $305.9 million on Thursday, after $347.5 million on Wednesday. The highest reading of the past two weeks fell on October 30, the day after the Binance attack, at $630.4 million. The derivatives market is therefore active, but it is not in a state of panic.
At OKX on November 5, there were 3.81 accounts with a long position for every XRP account holding a short.
The account long-short ratio shows how many accounts holding a long position there are for each account holding a short. At OKX, this figure for XRP rose from 2.71 to 3.81 between November 3 and November 5. For every account betting on falling prices, there are almost four betting on rising ones. The metric counts accounts rather than the capital behind them, so one large short can offset many small longs. The direction is nonetheless clear: retail traders are buying the dip with leverage.
The funding rate points in the same direction and tells the same story. On perpetual futures, contracts with no expiry date, longs pay a fee to shorts every eight hours for as long as the contract price is above the spot price. At OKX, this rate for XRP stood at 0.01 percent per settlement throughout November 3 to 5. At the settlement early on Friday morning it fell to 0.0024 percent. Traders' willingness to pay a premium for holding longs has thus dropped sharply with the slide.
Why the overhang can weigh on the price: many leveraged longs mean many stop orders and liquidation thresholds just below a highly visible level. If the price falls through the $1.19 zone, these positions are sold off by force, and each forced sale pushes the price lower still. Traders refer to this chain reaction as a liquidation cascade. If the zone holds, on the other hand, shorts lack the fuel for such a cascade and the longs stay in the market.
The second point of focus besides the derivatives market lies on the spot exchanges. According to data published on November 5 by the news site The Crypto Basic, Binance's XRP holdings rose from 2.35 billion to 2.63 billion tokens between November 3 and November 5. That is roughly 280 million XRP, or 11.9 percent more, in 48 hours. Where the tokens came from remains open, according to the report. Possible sources include purchases on the open market, over-the-counter deals or internal transfers; Binance has confirmed none of these.
The backdrop is the attack of October 29. According to the same report, 233.46 million XRP were taken from five Binance hot wallets. Based on that information, the analytics firm TRM Labs attributed the attack to the North Korean group TraderTraitor. Binance has said it will cover the losses from its SAFU fund, from reserves for futures contracts and from its own holdings. According to the report, customers' XRP balances were fully backed again as early as October 31.
For the price, it matters less where the tokens came from than where they are currently held. Tokens on an exchange can be sold quickly; tokens in private wallets cannot. At the same time, Binance's share of all XRP deposits to centralised exchanges rose from 44.3 to 56.2 percent between October 27 and November 5. Rising deposits are generally seen as an early sign of selling pressure. Whether that pressure materialises will be decided at the $1.19 zone.
Between November 3 and 5, Binance's XRP holdings grew by around 280 million tokens.
On Friday at 2:30 p.m. German time (8:30 a.m. in New York), the US Department of Labor publishes its jobs report for October. The number of new jobs created outside agriculture is regarded as the month's most important economic figure, because it shifts expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy. Bitcoin was already trading below its 100-day line on the morning before the release.
For XRP the connection is indirect, but it is measurable: this week the coin has followed every larger move in Bitcoin and the Nasdaq, only more sharply. If the report is weak and stokes worries about the US economy, technology stocks and cryptocurrencies are likely to come under pressure together once more. A solid report, by contrast, would give the market some breathing room for the time being. For the $1.19 zone, the afternoon is therefore the first real stress test.
The scenarios below are based on the price levels of recent weeks, not on any analyst's price target. What they show is which level becomes decisive at which point.
If the $1.19 zone holds after the jobs report as well, the first hurdle is Friday's intraday high of $1.222. Above that comes the 200-day line at $1.272, about 7 percent above the current price. A daily close above it would undo most of the pullback of the past two days. The next target would then be the November 4 high of $1.34.
If the market has no clear direction after the release, much points to a range between the support and the 200-day line. In that case the funding rate would continue to normalise and the long-short ratio would ease, without forced selling.
If XRP closes a day well below Friday's low of $1.188, the next confirmed level is the August 20 low of $1.0875, about 9 percent below today's price. Beneath that lies the zone of the August lows between $0.985 and $0.99. A drop there would mean a loss of 17 percent and, given the long overhang, would not be a far-fetched scenario.
Our assessment: the $1.19 zone has held twice and gave way by only one cent on Friday morning. In its favour, open interest remains high despite the slide, and the funding rate has fallen from 0.01 to 0.0024 percent. The derivatives market is thus shedding overheated expectations without collapsing. Against it are the long-short ratio of 3.81, which would trigger forced selling in a break, and the roughly 280 million additional XRP on Binance that could be sold at any time. As long as XRP trades below the 200-day line at $1.272, the editorial team sees the downside risk as larger than the upside potential. This is an assessment of the situation and not a recommendation to buy or sell.
Liquidation is the forced closing of a leveraged position once the posted collateral no longer covers the losses. As a rule of thumb, ignoring fees and maintenance margin: with 10x leverage, a decline of just under 10 percent is enough; with 5x leverage, one of just under 20 percent. A 10x long opened at $1.19 would therefore be liquidated at roughly $1.07 to $1.08. That range lies just below the August low of $1.0875, which is exactly where the next support waits in the breakdown scenario.
If you trade with leverage, check your liquidation price in the exchange's position overview before the jobs report and compare it with the levels above. If it sits just below a highly visible level, it sits where everyone else places their stops too. Spot purchases without leverage carry no liquidation risk. In that case a limit order is the useful tool: it is executed only at a fixed price, rather than at a worse one in a fast-moving market. On a crypto exchange licensed under MiCA, limit orders for XRP are standard.
In Germany, privately held cryptocurrencies are subject to a one-year holding period. If you hold XRP for longer than twelve months, you sell tax-free. Within that period, gains from private disposals are taxable once their combined total for the year reaches the exemption threshold of €1,000. Where the political debate on the holding period stands is summarised in our overview of the status of the holding period reform.
The pullback also has a tax dimension that is easy to overlook. If you bought XRP above $1.19 in the past twelve months and sell now, you realise a loss. That loss can be offset against gains from other private disposals in the same year, for instance from another coin sold at a profit within the holding period. The purchase date of each individual tranche is what counts, because part of a position may already be tax-free while another part is still within the period. A tax tool that imports the exchange's transactions shows this for each tranche.
The situation translates into three steps, depending on how you hold XRP:
Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile, and a total loss of the capital invested is possible.
(As of November 6, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
