A single historical event produced one of XRP’s most dramatic price moves on record. Crypto commentator Austin Hilton revisited that event in a new video ahead of today’s U.S. midterm electio
A single historical event produced one of XRP’s most dramatic price moves on record. Crypto commentator Austin Hilton revisited that event in a new video ahead of today’s U.S. midterm elections to assess whether a repeat is possible.
The event Hilton identified was the 2024 U.S. presidential election. XRP surged 600% in its aftermath with three forces driving that move simultaneously. Donald Trump’s victory lifted investor confidence across the entire crypto market. His win raised expectations for crypto-friendly regulation at the federal level.
Then former SEC Chair Gary Gensler announced his exit from the commission, removing the figure most associated with the agency’s aggressive stance toward digital assets. On top of all that, the SEC’s long-running legal battle against XRP was nearing its end. The combination of those three factors produced an extraordinary result.
XRP surged 600% the last time this happened!
Can history repeat itself tomorrow? pic.twitter.com/Iy64KN2JEo
— Austin Hilton (@austinahilton) November 2, 2026
Hilton is not expecting a similar surge from today’s midterm elections. He was explicit about it. He does not expect a 600% move because the conditions driving the 2024 rally are simply not present in the same way.
The current political environment carries a specific risk for crypto. Prediction market Polymarket places the probability of Democrats winning control of both the Senate and the House at around 70%. Hilton described that outcome as unfavorable for the crypto market, citing the Democratic Party’s record of blocking crypto-friendly legislation.
He attributed that opposition largely to anti-Trump positioning rather than to any principled stance on digital assets. Without a Trump-aligned victory, there is no equivalent catalyst. Gensler is already gone and the SEC lawsuit has been resolved. The conditions that stacked together in 2024 do not replicate cleanly in 2026.
Recent price action has reflected that uncertainty. “The markets are waiting,” Hilton observed. “Waiting to see what happens.” Bitcoin dipped in the days before the election. XRP barely moved.
The market appears to be holding its position rather than pricing in any strong outcome. Hilton’s AI-powered analytics dashboard, Market Vitals, currently rates XRP as neutral. It is not a buy signal.
Hilton expects the picture to clarify once results settle. The midterms carry real consequences for the regulatory environment around digital assets.
While the SEC and CFTC are working to provide clarity for the market, a Democratic sweep of Congress could extend the legislative gridlock that has slowed formal crypto policy in the U.S. This would significantly lower XRP’s chances of repeating the 600% move.
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