Zcash Price Tests Channel Support After 600% Rally From 2026 Low

• Zcash remains in a strong uptrend despite pulling back from its September high.
• The steep channel that has guided the rally since August is close to breaking.
• Momentum has weakened on each successive price high.
• Winklevoss Asset Services has filed for a spot ZEC ETF with a far lower fee than Grayscale’s.

Zcash (ZEC) traded at about $1,365 on October 7, down 19% from the September high of $1,693 but still more than 600% above its February low of $193. The token now carries a market capitalization of $23.08 billion and has moved past Hyperliquid into ninth place on CoinMarketCap. The pullback has brought the price to the lower edge of the channel that has contained the rally since mid-August, and it comes one day after Winklevoss Asset Services filed with the SEC for a spot Zcash ETF.

ZEC price $1,365 Coinbase, daily From September high -19% High at $1,693 From February low +600% Low at $193 Market cap $23.08B No. 9 on CoinMarketCap

ZEC sits 17% above its 50-day average after a 250% run in six weeks

The current leg began in mid-August, when ZEC left a ten-week trading range at $484 and climbed to $1,693 by late September, a gain of roughly 250%. On the Coinbase daily chart the price sits about 17% above the 50-day simple moving average at $1,164 and at more than double the 200-day average at $625. Both averages are rising.

Zcash tests channel support after its September high. Chart: Alexander Stefanov, TradingView

Against a move of that size, a 19% retreat is shallow. The first Fibonacci retracement level at $1,408, which marks a 23.6% giveback of the August-September advance, was lost last week and now acts as the nearest resistance, about 3% above the market.

The channel floor rises $27 a day, and ZEC is no longer keeping pace

The lower boundary of the rising channel climbs by roughly 2% a day, which at current prices is close to $27. Within a week that line will stand above $1,500, so ZEC has to keep gaining every day merely to stay inside the pattern. A few flat sessions would be enough to push the price out of it.

A break of that kind would end the near-vertical phase of the rally. It would not, on its own, reverse the trend, because the supports that define the uptrend lie well below the channel.

$1,164 to $1,231 is where the pullback meets its first real test

September highTop of the rally $1,693+24.0% Fib 0.236First resistance, lost last week $1,408+3.1% ZEC price nowAt the lower edge of the channel $1,365 Fib 0.382First support, top of the key zone $1,231-9.8% 50-day SMABottom of the key zone $1,164-14.8% Fib 0.5Deeper support $1,089-20.3% Fib 0.618Last level of a normal retracement $946-30.7% 200-day SMALong-term floor $625-54.2%

Percentages show the distance from the current price. Source: TradingView, Coinbase ZEC/USD daily chart.

The zone between $1,164 and $1,231 carries the most weight, since the 38.2% retracement and the 50-day average sit almost on top of each other there. A decline all the way to $946 would amount to a 44% drop from the high and would still count as an ordinary correction of the August move.

June’s drop to $249 came three weeks after a golden cross

ZEC has been through a similar setup once already this year. The 50-day average crossed above the 200-day in mid-May, a golden cross that traders read as a long-term bullish signal, while a head and shoulders top, a three-peak pattern that often marks the end of a rally, was still forming. Three weeks later the support line under those peaks near $495 gave way and ZEC fell as low as $249 intraday. Daily closes, however, held around $365, right on the 200-day average.

That average then served as a floor through ten weeks of sideways trading, and the advance the cross had pointed to began in August. Two conclusions follow for the present. A strong trend signal does not prevent a sharp short-term drop, and the 200-day average has already been tested as support once. It now runs just above the top of the old range, which makes $585 to $625 the long-term floor.

RSI peaks fell from 88 to 72 while ZEC set three higher highs

The Relative Strength Index is the main warning on the chart. ZEC set three successive highs near $875, $1,290 and $1,693, while the RSI peaks behind them fell from about 88 to about 72. Each push higher was made with less buying force than the one before, a pattern known as bearish divergence.

The RSI reads 52.18 today, below its own moving average of 56.17, and both are declining. It has not fallen under 50. Momentum has cooled without turning negative.

Winklevoss wants 0.25% a year where Grayscale charges 2.5%

On October 6, Winklevoss Asset Services submitted a preliminary S-1 for the Winklevoss Zcash ETF, which would hold ZEC directly and list on Nasdaq under the ticker WINK. Gemini Trust Company would act as custodian. The proposed sponsor fee is 0.25% a year, against the 2.5% charged by Grayscale’s ZCSH, the only U.S. spot Zcash fund currently trading.

Filed, not approved Winklevoss Zcash ETF (WINK) 0.25% annual fee, about $250 on $100,000 Status: S-1 filed October 6 Exchange: Nasdaq (proposed) Custodian: Gemini Trust Company Already trading Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) 2.5% annual fee, about $2,500 on $100,000 Status: Trading since August 25 Exchange: NYSE Arca Last week: $93.6M net outflow Yearly cost of holding $100,000 WINK – $250 ZCSH – $2,500

The filing is not an approval. The registration statement still has to become effective and Nasdaq has to complete its listing process. The filing also states that Winklevoss Capital may buy up to $100 million of WINK shares, but describes that as a non-binding indication of interest, not committed capital. Bitwise has filed for a Zcash fund as well, which makes Winklevoss the third issuer in the category, at a time when altcoin ETF filings are advancing across the market.

The filing lands in a softer market for the existing fund. ZCSH gathered more than $500 million in assets within two weeks of launch, yet Farside Investors data shows about $77.6 million in net withdrawals in the week ending October 2, the fund’s first negative week, followed by a further $3.6 million outflow on October 5., the fund’s first negative week. New issuers are arriving as early ETF demand cools, which is consistent with the weaker momentum on the chart.

A daily close above $1,408 or below $1,231 decides the next leg

Bullish Daily close above $1,408 ZEC holds the channel line and retests $1,693. The RSI crossing above its average would confirm it. Given the divergence and the slope of the channel, this requires a fresh wave of buying. Sideways – best fit for the evidence Range between $1,231 and $1,408 The price slips out of the channel and moves sideways while the 50-day average catches up. This would reset the RSI without damaging the trend. Bearish Daily close below $1,231 A further close below the 50-day average opens $1,089 and $946. Only a close under $946 would call the August rally itself into question.

Until one of those closes arrives, the chart describes a pause inside an uptrend, with the sideways path the most consistent with the fading momentum and the steepness of the channel.

NU7 would cut block times to 25 seconds, with mainnet targeted for November 5

The network itself is also about to change. The Zcash Foundation has released the first release candidate of the NU7 network upgrade, which is running on testnet and would cut block times from 75 seconds to 25 while routing 60% of transaction fees into a reserve that later supplements miner rewards. Developers are targeting November 5 for mainnet and plan to set the activation height on October 20, after reviewing the testnet run. The 21 million supply cap is unchanged.

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