Bitcoin price hovered near $79,791 on Tuesday, October 27, ahead of the Fed decision on October 28. BTC dipped to about $79,300 earlier, then steadied near $80,000, after a weekend low of $79
Bitcoin price hovered near $79,791 on Tuesday, October 27, ahead of the Fed decision on October 28. BTC dipped to about $79,300 earlier, then steadied near $80,000, after a weekend low of $79,250.
Traders are watching one question: can Bitcoin climb back above $80,000? CME FedWatch gives a hold 89.5% odds, with a 10.5% chance of a hike.
The data is split. ETFs took in $110.34 million on October 26, and retail inflows hit a 6-month high. But small wallets keep leaving, Bitcoin sits below the daily WMA 50 near $80,960, and Q4 has been red in the last three midterm years.
Will BTC reclaim $80K before the Fed speaks? Here are the numbers, levels, and events to watch.
Bitcoin has fallen for five days in a row on the daily chart. It also slipped below the daily WMA 50 near $80,960.
Altcoins are mixed. Ether sits at $2,310, up 0.21%. XRP is up 1.35% at $1.28.
The market cap is about $1.60 trillion. Futures volume over 24 hours is $48.30 billion.
The current target rate is 3.75% to 4.00%. CME FedWatch shows the chance of a cut at 0%.
Time
No Change (3.75%-4.00%)
Hike (4.00%-4.25%)
Now
89.5%
10.5%
1 day ago
90.0%
10.0%
1 week ago
81.2%
18.8%
1 month ago
35.8%
64.2%
A month ago, a hike looked more likely than a pause. Now most traders expect no change. A 10.5% hike chance still remains, so a surprise could shake the market.
Yes, but only one fund added money on October 26.
Metric
Value
Daily net inflow
$110.34 million
Cumulative net inflow
$57.29 billion
Total net assets
$102.84 billion (6.41% of market cap)
IBIT net assets
$64.80 billion
FBTC net assets
$14.05 billion
GBTC cumulative flow
-$28.00 billion
All of the daily inflow came from BlackRock's IBIT. The other ten funds on the list showed $0.00. Most ETF share prices fell between 1.52% and 1.68% that day.
Metric
Value
Open interest
$54.29 billion (+1.41%)
Options volume
$3.51 billion (+55.95%)
Long/short ratio (24h)
1.0255
Binance accounts ratio
2.3501
Top traders (accounts/positions)
2.4807 / 1.9472
24h liquidations
$36.66 million
Longs lost $18.68 million, and shorts lost $17.98 million. That is a fairly even split.
A ratio above 1 means more long positions. High open interest and leverage can still bring sharp swings.
Santiment says BTC lost roughly 30,000 non-empty wallets since October 16. The total is now near 59.95 million.
That may sound bad, but smaller holders seem to be losing patience after weeks of flat price action. A past drop of 290,000 holders came before the August rise, according to the Santiment chart.
Retail inflows also hit a 6-month high while $BTC holds $80K. Whales and retail are acting in opposite ways.
Level
What It Means
$87,500
Resistance
$84,800
Resistance
$82,500
Reclaim level for the wallet-count bottom case
$82,000
Resistance on the 4-hour chart
$80,960
Daily WMA 50
$80,000
Immediate battleground
$75,000
Support
$72,500
Possible correction target
Ali Charts says BTC broke below a rising parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. If $82,000 keeps capping price, a drop toward $72,500 is possible. That is where the analyst plans to look for a buy.
A move above $85,000 would be a better sign. A clean break below $79,000 would delay any bottom setup. These are views from analysts, not sure paths.
In the last three midterm years, Q4 ended in the red, based on Coinglass data shared by Ali Charts.
Year
Q4 Result
2014
-16.70%
2018
-42.16%
2022
-14.75%
Three data points are a small sample. The pattern may not repeat in 2026.
Analyst Javon Marks points to a macro ascending channel that has held since 2016. He says each test of the midline was followed by a run to the upper level.
In his view, that leaves some chance of a move above $200K and toward $500K+. There is no timeline, and nothing is guaranteed.
Several big events land at once: the Israel election, the FOMC decision, big tech earnings, U.S. PCE, GDP, and the midterm elections.
If BTC gets back above the daily WMA 50, the chart looks better. If not, $75,000 comes into focus.
This article is for information only and is not financial, investment, or trading advice. Crypto is highly volatile, and you can lose some or all of your money. Prices, ratios, and flows change fast. Do your own research and speak with a licensed financial advisor before you invest.
