The US central bank announces its rate decision this evening at 7 pm Central European Time. The key rate stands at 3.75 to 4 percent, and it did not arrive there in September through a cut bu
The US central bank announces its rate decision this evening at 7 pm Central European Time. The key rate stands at 3.75 to 4 percent, and it did not arrive there in September through a cut but through a hike. Anyone holding Bitcoin therefore has a different question to answer today than in the months before. It is how much further tightening their own portfolio can take.
Bitcoin is trading at $81,352 this morning, up 1.7 percent within 24 hours (CoinGecko). That leaves a loss of around 2.7 percent for October. The decision itself takes a second, the reasoning half an hour longer. Both land in a market that works with leverage.
The Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, is the body of the US central bank that decides the key rate. According to the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar it meets on October 27 and 28, 2026, so the decision comes on the second day, today.
The key rate, called the federal funds rate in the United States, is the rate at which banks lend each other money overnight; it indirectly determines what credit costs everywhere else. The central bank sets a target range for it, currently 3.75 to 4 percent.
The decision is published at 2 pm local time in Washington. Because the United States is still on summer time and Germany has not been since October 25, that is 7 pm in Central Europe. The chair's press conference begins half an hour later. Kevin Warsh chairs the Board of Governors.
On September 16 the committee raised the target range by a quarter point, unanimously at twelve votes to zero. The Federal Reserve's decision gives as its reasoning that inflation remains elevated; the measure is meant to support a more timely return to the two percent goal.
That is the situation today's decision lands in. A central bank that has just raised and still describes inflation as elevated has two routes: another step up, or a pause that holds the range. Which of them appears in the text decides the price of the coming days more than any analyst estimate.
In the same decision the committee calls economic output solid, productivity strong and investment robust, with an unemployment rate that has barely moved. A central bank describing its economy that way has little reason to loosen quickly.
The reasoning comes half an hour after the number, and it often moves the price more.
Four times a year the central bank publishes a Summary of Economic Projections alongside the meeting, a collection of every participant's expectations for growth, unemployment, inflation and the rate path. The meeting calendar marks those dates with an asterisk. The October meeting has none.
That has a practical consequence. There is no new dot plot today from which the expected rate path can be read. Everything the market gets in the way of direction sits in the wording of the decision and in the answers at the press conference. Anyone waiting for a number describing the path for 2027 waits in vain today; the next round of projections comes with the meeting on December 8 and 9.
For the price reaction that means it arises from language, not from tables. That is exactly why the first move after a rate decision often runs one way and the second the other, once the reasoning has been read.
On October 1 Bitcoin stood at $83,576; it is now at $81,352 (CoinGecko, read on October 28). That gives a loss of around 2.7 percent for the month. October counts as a strong month in the industry; this year it is not playing that role.
cryptoticker.io compiled this analysis itself on October 28, 2026, on the basis of CoinGecko's daily data for October 1 and the same provider's current price.
A monthly loss of 2.7 percent is not a crisis. It does shift the calculation for anyone working with borrowed money. There, what counts is the distance between entry price and liquidation threshold, and that shrinks with every percent to the downside.
A leveraged position borrows capital to move a larger sum than sits in the account. The liquidation price is the level at which the exchange force-closes the position because the posted collateral is used up. It appears in every trading screen, and it is the only number that really counts on an evening like this.
The funding rate is the balancing payment that flows regularly between the buy and sell sides on perpetual futures so that the contract price sticks to the spot price. It costs money for as long as a position is open, and it says nothing about when that position is closed. The two numbers are confused all the same.
Before a rate decision, price ranges sometimes narrow for minutes because order books thin out. A position whose liquidation threshold sits only a few percent away can break in that phase, even though half an hour later the price is back where it was. The loss stays all the same.
Anyone trading such contracts should lay the terms of the brokers and trading venues side by side before the evening starts; the differences in collateral requirements and fees are considerable.
In Germany, crypto assets count as other economic goods. The gain from a sale is free of income tax after a holding period of more than one year; anyone selling earlier pays tax on the gain at their personal rate, provided the total of private disposal gains in the year exceeds the allowance.
That turns a market question into a calendar question. A position turning one year old in November has a different value from the same position at eleven months, and a hurried sale on the evening of a rate decision can cost that difference. If you do not have your entry dates in your head, they are in the exchange's transaction history or in a portfolio tracker with a tax function that carries the deadlines per purchase.
With several purchases of the same coin, each tranche counts separately. Which of them counts as sold depends on the method applied to the calculation; the order of purchase is the usual one.
The holding period for each purchase is not in the chart but in your own transaction history.
A spot ETF is a fund that holds the cryptocurrency itself and trades on an exchange. In the EU the comparable products are mostly ETNs, exchange-traded debt securities of an issuer, where that issuer's solvency is also at risk. The difference sounds legal and becomes practical on a day with a rate decision.
An exchange-traded product follows the trading hours of its exchange. If the decision falls at 7 pm and the crypto market reacts at once, the price runs on while trading in the wrapper is closed. Anyone investing through a securities account therefore gets the move into their portfolio with a delay. Which routes exist in Germany also differs from one custodian bank to the next.
Buying directly on an exchange removes that lag, but then custody is your own responsibility. Both routes have different weak points on the same evening.
MiCA is the EU regulation on markets in crypto-assets. It requires trading venues and custodians to hold an authorisation, granted in one member state and then valid across Europe. Behind it sits the question of which supervisory regime your balance falls under if a provider runs into trouble.
A rate decision changes nothing about that. It does regularly lead to volume spikes, and volume spikes are the moments when withdrawals take longer and order books jump. Anyone wanting to switch provider on such an evening switches at the worst possible time.
The authorisation is publicly verifiable, and it differs from advertising claims such as regulated or safe, which are not defined legal terms.
Ethereum is trading at $2,363, up 1.9 percent in 24 hours (CoinGecko). The move sits close to Bitcoin's, and that is typical for rate dates: correlation between the large crypto assets rises when a shared macro trigger is in the calendar.
Smaller assets usually move more in both directions in these phases, because their order books are thinner. That says nothing about their quality, but it does say something about the swings to expect. Holding a position whose daily turnover is small against your own position size can mean getting a price on sale well below the one on the screen.
Analysts will name price targets after the decision; that much is certain. Which of them hold depends on the wording of the decision, not on the number in the headline of a forecast.
The decision has been in the calendar for months. Three things can still be sorted out calmly beforehand:
After 7 pm, none of these three can be settled calmly any more.
(As of October 28, 2026. This article is not investment advice. Prices and fee structures change; check the terms with the provider before you buy.)
